Super regional capsule: Mississippi State

Not even a month ago, a Southeastern Conference team found its season threatened with an early ending.

A sub-.500 conference record, some bad mid-week losses, the inability to get enough arms pitching consistently well and the inability to get consistent run-scoring for a couple of weeks at a time were all problematic.

The saving graces were one of the highest win totals against RPI top-50 teams in America, and a regular-season conference sweep to end the season.

Sound familiar? That's Mississippi State's story, too.

And like the Commodores, MSU lost its one game in the conference tournament, before going to an Atlantic Coast Conference host and pulling an upset to win a regional.

One difference: while Vandy was three-and-done, MSU did it the toughest possible way.

One week ago Friday, MSU gave up 22 hits and made three errors as it was bombed 20-10 by regional three-seed Oklahoma. The Bulldogs used eight pitchers that day, seven of whom were charged with earned runs.

State had to win four games in three days to advance. Even good pitching staffs find that a challenge, but that wasn't nearly all the difficulty the Bulldogs would face.

The regional took place in Tallahassee, Fla., with high temperatures in the 90s.

Against that backdrop, State would have to advance with an almost entirely right-handed bullpen against the backdrop of the pinball machine known as Dick Howser Stadium, where cans of corn become home runs due to the short porch in right.

And, the Bulldogs would have to go through not only Oklahoma, but host Florida State as well, if they wanted to survive.

Down 2-0 to the host Seminoles, with a 1-2 count to Elijah MacNamee, with FSU starter Drew Parrish still on the hill, MacNamee, a right-hander, then hit a three-run homer to left to keep the Bulldogs alive and end FSU's season.

Mississippi State then won a 9-8 nail-biter over four-seed Samford, before thrashing OU by scores of 13-5 and 8-1 to win the regional.

Now comes a rematch with Vanderbilt, which swept MSU on the Bulldogs' home field in a three-game series from Mar. 16-18 by scores of 5-0, 10-1 and 4-3.

But State is a different and more confident team now than it was then.

It swept Florida in Starkville to end the regular season. Although the Gators, having already clinched the SEC regular-season title and adjusted accordingly by resting ace Brady Singer, that was impressive by any measure.

And, when the teams met earlier in the year, State was still getting used to a coaching change to Gary Henderson after the sudden bizarre resignation of Andy Cannizaro on Feb. 20, three games into the seaosn.

The teams enter the series with nearly identical records. Vanderbilt's supporting metrics are better--a 1.9-run-per-game advantage to MSU's 1.0--against schedules that are nearly identical (both RPI and BoydsWorld ISIRs give the edge to Vanderbilt, but by the narrowest of margins).

Mississippi State is just 12-27 against Vanderbilt since Commodore coach Tim Corbin took over in 2003. The Bulldogs won just one road series all year, that coming when MSU took two of three at Alabama from May 4-6.

The winner of this series gets a trip to the College World Series. Here's a look at what Vanderbilt has to get past in order to get there.

It's a team that had to re-shape its offensive identity after losing the 2017 National Player of the Year in Brent Rooker. After struggling early, State has scored five runs or more in 13 of its last 16 games.

The Bulldogs are a doubles-hitting team; they mashed 133 of them, compared to VU's 101. They put the ball in play more often when they swing (79 percent, compared to the 'Dores 73), but, don't walk as much (nine percent vs. 11) or hit as many home runs (42 vs. 62).

Henderson has found a lineup he likes, and stuck with it. With the exception of DH and catcher, the same seven Bulldogs have started in the field and hit in the above spots in the order for seven straight games.

At catcher, MSU went with Dustin Skelton in six of its last seven contests. Marshall Gilbert started the other. Each started 31 games during the season.

Five Bulldogs--Jordan Westburg, Hunter Vansau, Josh Hatcher and Jordan Anderson--have started at DH in the past eight contests.

Center fielder Jake Mangum, a two-time, first-team All-SEC pick (that includes this season), is MSU's best player. He's already announced he'll return to Starkville after being picked in the 32nd round of this week's MLB Draft. He walked 26 times against just 25 strikeouts, led the Bulldogs with 20 doubles and was picked to the league's All-Defensive Team.

McNamee, Tanner Poole, Luke Alexander and Hunter Stovall (21st round, Rockies) were starters the majority of the time for MSU in 2017, and Vansau started 26 times a year ago.

Freshmen played a big part in Mississippi State's offensive success. First baseman Tanner Allen was a Freshman All-SEC pick, while Foscue and Rowdey Jordan also contributed in big ways.

Friday starter Konnor Pilkington entered the year as a potential first-round draft pick. A disappointing campaign saw him slide to the third round (81st overall) to the White Sox. His component ERA (3.94) suggests he pitched a little better than his actual mark of 4.61, but he also gave up 1.44 base runners per inning pitched. The 60th-ranked prospect for the draft by MLB Pipeline, you may view a scouting report of him here.

Former Vandy commit Ethan Small (Round 26, Arizona) was MSU's real ace. Small will give up some extra-base hits (15 doubles, seven homers) but came up big with a two-run, eight-strikeout effort in the Tallahassee Regional.

Jacob Billingsley was the team's No. 3 all year. Billingsley is capable of running up high strikeout totals; he struck out 11 at Kentucky in 5 2/3 innings, but also got tagged for five earned runs that day despite surprisingly not walking anyone. Billingsley gave up 1.67 runners per inning this season.

Roles have varied in the bullpen, with six Bulldogs each notching a save, but none of them having more than three.

If postseason baseball is truth serum, then the relievers that Henderson likes most are J.P France (three appearances in Tallahassee, 9 2/3 innings), Riley Self (two, five IP), Cole Gordon (two, six IP) and Denver McQuarry (two, 3 2/3 IP).

Self missed some time earlier in the year recovering from a rotator cuff injury, and was MSU's most successful reliever. His 16 appearances all came in relief.

France (14th round, Astros) and McQuarry each made regional starts, with France (who gave up four earned in 1 1/3 in the regional opener) being perhaps the pitching hero of the series with his seven shutout innings against Oklahoma in the series clincher. Self added two innings of hitless, three-strikeout baseball for the save.

Keegan James, Blake Smith, Zach Neff (Round 31, Twins) and Jared Liebelt all gave up runs in the regional opener, and none pitched again.

Neff appears to be the only left-handed option out of the pen at this time.

MSU did a good job keeping the ball in the park, yielding 39 home runs this season.

State's defense fielded at a .972 clip. Stovall's 11 errors were a team high.

Shortstop Luke Alexander doesn't hit much, but made nine errors and fielded .965.

Teams had trouble running on MSU, stealing successfully on only 36 of 63 tries.

Record: 35-26 (16-14 SEC)

Road record: 8-16

Coach: Gary Henderson (315-254, .554 overall) and 35-23 at MSU

RPI, SOS: 19 (7)

Boyd's World ISIR, SOS: 30 (4)

Run differential: 6.0-5.0