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Published Feb 18, 2025
Commodores Travel to Lexington, Vanderbilt at Kentucky Preview
Miller McKee  •  TheDoreReport
Contributor
Twitter
@Millermckee

When

Wednesday, February 19

6:00pm CST

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Where

Rupp Arena

TV/Streaming

SECN/ESPN App

Radio

94.9 FM Locally

SiriusXM 382 for Vandy Broadcast

Rankings

AP: Kentucky #15, Vanderbilt Unranked

Kenpom: Kentucky 19, Vanderbilt 41 (5 spots improved from before UT)

NET: Kentucky 17, Vanderbilt 41

Bracketmatrix: Tennessee 3, Vanderbilt 10

Spread

Kentucky -5.5

Over/Under 161.5

Vanderbilt Moneyline +200

How We Got Here

Kentucky enters the second game of this season series down 0-1 after Vanderbilt was able to out physical them in the second half in January to give the Commodores a 74-69 victory. Since this game, the Wildcats have taken their fans on a roller coaster of emotion, losing three of their last five games, but completing a regular season sweep of rival Tennessee. The low point for Kentucky during this streak was letting their ex-coach, John Calipari, bring his Razorbacks into Rupp Arena on a Saturday night to upset the Cats. Kentucky’s slide is partly due to injuries of two starters, Jaxson Robinson and Lamont Butler, which has really hurt their guard depth. The Wildcats will have to turn around their play and look like they did against Tennessee if they want to keep from getting swept by the Commodores in Mark Pope’s first year.

The Commodores will be entering historic Rupp Arena on Wednesday night after dropping the last two games, despite playing their best half of the season on the road at Tennessee. After watching the Volunteers come back from 16 down to overtake the Commodores on Saturday afternoon, many fans thought their chance to make the tournament was dwindling away. However, if you look at how Vanderbilt stands in NET and Kenpom from last week, the close loss actually helped them. Every game against a top opponent is going to help the resume of the ‘Dores, as their strength of schedule rises. The SEC is far and away the best conference in the country this year (despite the .500 record the conference has in its own conference games) and the level of competition is far superior to any other league in the country. Outside of the SEC what teams do you think could be up at Florida at half, up at Tennessee at half, and up on Auburn in the 2nd half? This is a very good basketball team that happens to play in a conference like nobody has seen before! Be proud of this team, enjoy watching them, and cheer wildly for them to finish the season strong so we can “go dancing” in March!

What to Expect

Kentucky will limp into this game after losing at Texas Saturday night, a game where the lack of depth at point guard glared. In order to break this slump and get back to winning basketball, look for the Wildcats to take a page out of the Tennessee playbook with an inside-to-out offensive approach, running through the post. Amari Williams, Otega Oweh, and Ansley Almonor were the only double-digit scorers on Saturday, but it took them 32 field goal attempts to reach those numbers. Most Kentucky fans have already ‘thrown in the towel’ on the regular season and are hoping for a healthy squad to do it in the postseason.

Vanderbilt will enter Wednesday’s matchup not in a must-win situation, but a game that if the Commodores can pull off, will all but lock them into the field of 68 in a few weeks. Mark Byington’s squad is playing good basketball, just needing to put two complete halves together. If Vandy can play an entire game like the first half in Knoxville on Saturday, this is a team that can beat anyone in the country on any given night. I expect AJ Hoggard to have a big game Wednesday night as the matchup is favorable for him, providing good opportunities to drive to the rim. I predict a lot more emphasis on defending Edwards. As we witnessed last Saturday, he can create space and is truly dangerous when the ball is in his hands. For a Vanderbilt victory Wednesday night, look for them to start the game at the rim and force Kentucky to try and help off the ball handler, resulting in hopefully a 2nd half barrage from long-distance. Vandy needs to score early and get out to the same lead that kept the “big orange” crowd silent for the first half last week.

Chef Miller’s Prediction

79-74 Vandy!