This weekend brings another top 25 matchup as the Vandyboys travel to Oxford, Mississippi, to take on the Ole Miss Rebels. Vanderbilt sits at number 9 after sweeping Georgia to move to a 30-11 (11-7 SEC) record. Ole Miss has fallen to number 23 with a 29-12 (10-8 SEC) record after losing two straight series versus Tennessee and at South Carolina.
The Rebels are led offensively by a 4-headed monster of Will Furniss, Mitchell Sanford, Luke Hill, and Judd Utermark– all of whom have a batting average of over .300 (both overall and in conference play) and have hit at least seven home runs. Sanford and Utermark lead the way in power production at 12 and 11 home runs, respectively, but Utermark has only hit 2 in SEC play, whereas Sanford already has 8. Luke Hill has a batting average of .355, an OBP of .480, and has walked 14 more times than he has struck out this season. Furniss struggled to start the season but has caught fire in SEC play, where he is batting .333 with an OPS of 1.094 and has walked more than he has struck out. An under-the-radar name to watch is catcher Austin Fawley, who had a brutal start to the season but is hitting .309 with seven home runs in SEC play. Beyond those 5, though, only one consistent start is batting above .250 in SEC play.
Ole Miss’s pitching is not quite as prolific as their offense, but it is still very respectable. 2022 CWS star Hunter Elliot is their Friday night guy and has had a strong year, as shown by a 4.04 ERA and 58:22 K/BB ratio. Behind Elliot, the starting pitching quality decreases noticeably, as Saturday starter Riley Maddox has a 6.10 ERA and Sunday starter Mason Nickols has a 4.43 ERA. However, Ole Miss has an elite bullpen arm in Mason Morris. Morris had a 2.16 ERA in 33.1 IP and struck out an absurd 50 batters then. In SEC play, the Ole Miss pitching staff has struggled a bit, as only Morris has an ERA below 4, and Elliot and Maddox’s ERAs have increased dramatically.
Keys to the Series
Maintain Momentum
The two teams coming into this series are on polar opposite sides of the spectrum when it comes to recent performance and season trajectories. Ole Miss got all the way up to number 6 in the rankings before dropping a series to Tennessee and then losing to South Carolina twice in rather embarrassing fashion. On the other hand, Vanderbilt is coming into this series after sweeping top-5 ranked Georgia, revitalizing their chances at not only hosting but potentially even getting a national seed. Baseball is a sport where mental and actual momentum can have an absolutely massive impact on performance and outcomes. Vandy must ride their momentum early on and not let Ole Miss regain their form. Game 1 will be crucial for Vanderbilt, as if they can win this one, that may just put Ole Miss in too much of a mental funk to respond.
The other side of that is, as we saw against MTSU, it’s easy to get complacent after a big series sweep. Vanderbilt cannot let recent success cloud their focus as they strive towards much larger goals this season. If they come out flat-footed, Ole Miss has the offensive talent and pitching quality to strike quickly and definitively. Vandy cannot allow them to do that.
Favorable Pitching Matchup for Vandy
Ole Miss, while they do not necessarily have Georgia's otherworldly power production, is still a very power-reliant team with many highly capable sluggers. Vanderbilt giving up some home runs is, frankly, an inevitability. The staff’s job will be, just as they did against Georgia, to ensure that those home runs are solo shots and not multiple run-scoring hits. The statistics support the idea that Vandy can do this, though. Vanderbilt’s pitching staff has, thus far, the lowest opponent batting average allowed in the SEC as well as one of the lowest OPS allowed in-conference, too. Vanderbilt pitchers also do not allow a ton of BBs, although when they do, they tend to get punished for this. If these trends can continue against Ole Miss, it will shut down a lot of their offensive games as they won’t both hit a ton of home runs or XBHs, and even when they do, they likely will not have many people on base to drive home.
On top of this, Vanderbilt’s pitching staff has struck out the most batters of any team in conference play and has the 2nd highest K rate of any SEC team over the whole season. Ole Miss has the 2nd most strikeouts of any SEC team despite the fact that they have two batters with more BBs than Ks. This is highlighted by Judd Utermark, who, despite his .301 average and 11 homers, is striking out on over 30% of his ABs overall. Vanderbilt’s ability to get strikeouts should even further limit Ole Miss’ ability to get runners on base and hit for power.
Is the Offense (and power) Sustainable?
While somewhat inconsistent in terms of results, Vanderbilt has had a notable power surge of late and is hitting the ball harder than at any point of the year prior. Exemplifying this is that while it was not an elite offensive series overall, Vanderbilt managed to outslug Georgia, hitting six home runs to UGA’s 5. In the last six games, Vanderbilt has hit 10 home runs (they were averaging just 0.8 home runs per game prior to this) and seen three batters hit multiple home runs in that stretch. With the success that Vanderbilt has seen in those six games, it seems like it is absolutely in their best interest to continue utilizing this approach that prioritizes power, but will the results continue to follow?
Braden Holcomb and Riley Nelson are both hitting over .400 in SEC play with an OPS north of 1.000. Simply put, that will not continue to happen barring some crazy performances down the stretch from both of them. But even if those gaudy numbers begin to fall, if they continue to produce power when making contact (which is very likely, especially for Holcomb who has 3 home runs and a double in his last 9 hits) they will remain effective. Picking up the slack for their inevitable dips in production will also very likely be Brodie Johnston and Rustan Rigdon, as the freshmen appear to be putting things together in SEC play. Johnston finally seems to be seeing SEC pitching better and has gotten back to his home-run-hitting ways. Rigdon continues to put outstanding ABs together and has an OBP just shy of .400 in SEC play. Look for Jonathan Vastine and Colin Barczi to start hitting again soon, too, as they had a down series (in Barczi’s case due to injury) after strong starts in SEC play. Frankly, the combination of actually playing power hitters while employing an approach that prioritizes power is exactly what this team needed. This team has the bodies to hit for power, and I think that they will continue to do so if that’s what their focus is.
What’s going on with RJ Austin?
It’s no secret that Austin is still stuck in the most difficult stretch of his career as his batting average has plummeted to .260, and he’s hitting just .164 in SEC play. However, a shoulder/bicep injury has kept him sidelined for the last two games. He is listed as questionable for the series, but Tim Corbin expressed optimism that he would play in Oxford. If he does play, will we see the RJ Austin of last year and early this season, or will he continue to slump? If he does not play, will Vanderbilt get enough offense from Mac Rose or Jayden Davis, who will likely slide into the DH spot in his absence? Vanderbilt is a much more threatening and capable team when RJ Austin is playing at full capacity, and his continued struggles or absence could make or break a close series like this one.
Predictions
I think Vanderbilt and Ole Miss are two teams just heading in different directions now. While Vandy has not played great on the road this year, they can ride their momentum and elite pitching to a series win. The offense will probably continue to do just enough to get by, and the power surge makes this a more likely scenario. I guess that Vandy takes game one and eventually ends up with a 2-1 series win in Oxford.
