The 3-2-1, post-Mississippi State

Here are three things we've learned, two questions and one prediction following Vandy's 81-80 win over Mississippi State.

First, some key stats, including several on a per-70-possession basis:

1. It's no longer a three-man show.

Vanderbilt's offense once went as far as Riley LaChance, Jeff Roberson, Saben Lee and Matthew Fisher-Davis would take it. The subtraction of Fisher-Davis through a January shoulder injury put an extra burden on the first three, which they've shared well. That's especially true of LaChance and Roberson.

But other players are starting to help, too.

Joe Toye has played significantly better lately. He's scored in double figures five times this year, three coming in the last five contests. He's gone 22-of-36 from the floor in that span, with an effective field goal percentage of 69.4.

Toye may have played his best all-around career game on Wednesday, scoring 16 points on 10 shots in 31 minutes, tying a career high with four assists (against just one turnover), and tying a career high with six rebounds.

Payton Willis scored a season-high 15 last night, two off his career high. Willis has scored in double figures three times this season, two coming in the past three games.

The Commodores started to peak around this time last year, due to quality play from supporting parts like Nolan Cressler and Toye. VU has won four of its last eight, and played better than it has all season. A main reason for that is because it is now getting production from players where it wasn't earlier in the season.

2. Matthew Fisher-Davis has been missed on defense.

I believe that Fisher-Davis would have elevated his game and shot better at some point, but we'll never know. It's undeniable that the Commodores have played better without him offensively since.

It's also undeniable that Vanderbilt has gotten worse without him on defense.

Each look at Ken Pomeroy's adjusted defensive efficiency metrics after each passing game is cringe-worthy.

I wrote in this space a month ago about how bad Vanderbilt's defense had gotten. The Commodores were 172nd following the first full game that Fisher-Davis missed, one where they gave up 80 points at Mississippi State. Through the latest games (subscription required to view link), they're 188th.

Fisher-Davis was probably Vanderbilt's most talented returning defender on the perimeter. He was rebounding exceptionally well for a guard, and led the team in steals at the time of the injury.

The Commodores had fits on Wednesday against dribble penetration, and teams have shot lights-out against VU recently. At a time when games hinge on a possession or two, Fisher-Davis's absence seems to have made it tougher to get key stops.

3. Ken Pomeroy is not bullish on Vanderbilt winning its individual remaining games.

Pomeroy's predicted records work in fractions of wins. For example, if a team has a 40 percent chance to win each of 10 games, he credits it with four predicted wins, even if he pegs you to lose each individually.

Likewise, Pomeroy does not pick VU to win any of its remaining contests, pegging the Commodores with a 30 to 44 percent shot in each of its five regular-season games.

1. How much would a scoring and/or passing threat in the post help?

Check out the stats table at the top of the page, both the percentages and the per-70-possession rate stats. It's obvious how little teams need to worry about Vanderbilt getting points from its more natural low-post players. (Ejike Obinna is the exception, but fouling 9.5 times per 70 possessions is making it tough for him to be on the floor long.)

Check out those assist numbers, too. Obinna has played 182 minutes and doesn't have a single one. Brown and Baptiste have a combined nine in 827 combined minutes.

The Commodores are a hot-and-cold 3-point shooting team, and when those shots aren't falling, they almost always lose. How much would a post who can pass and score, a la A.J. Ogilvy, help the offense on the whole?

2. Is this Saben Lee's freshman wall?

We certainly aren't ready to write off Vanderbilt's freshman star yet. But it is interesting to notice how, after a six-game stretch from Dec. 22 to Jan. 13, during which he scored double figures in each game, Lee has fallen off a bit.

Lee has reached double-figure scoring just four of the nine games since. He didn't score at Tennessee on Jan. 23 for the only time this season. He had four last night. His minutes have declined from 36 to 28 to 26 to 14 over the last four games.

Lee saw his minutes decline precipitously Wednesday due to how Willis played, and justifiably so. This may just be one of those "stuff happens" spells where things like Willis's play, combined with a brief shooting slump, combine at once. Don't forget, he scored 19 against Georgia in 28 minutes last week.

That's why I've made this a question rather than a statement. But Lee is a slender 174 pounds on his 6-foot-2 frame and has never had the demands of full-time basketball the way college puts them upon you. It's something to watch down the stretch.

There will be three more regular season wins.

The Commodores have five games left. Three--Florida, Texas A&M and Missouri--are home, with road trips to LSU and Ole Miss.

Vanderbilt has had Florida's number in general, winning five in a row before losing a close one in Gainesville.

Texas A&M (four losses) and Missouri (three) have never won in Memorial Gymnasium as Southeastern Conference members. (Or otherwise, for that matter.)

The Commodores beat LSU at home earlier in the year.

As for Ole Miss, the Rebels are now the SEC's worst team, according to Ken Pomeroy.

I can't tell you where wins are most likely, though home games are a good start. VU has won four in a row in Memorial, and has yet to beat anyone on the road. Of course, Missouri and A&M are playing well, and Florida won't be easy.

The Ole Miss game will be interesting. It's coach Andy Kennedy's last home game in Oxford, and it'll be Senior Night as well. There will be plenty of emotion in the air, and it's hard to predict whether that will work for our against Ole Miss.

Pomeroy has Vanderbilt winning two more games. But the Commodores have played better on the whole after adjusting to the Fisher-Davis absence, so I'll be an optimist and predict one more than that, though I doubt any will be easy.