This weekend Vandy sets out to get a bounceback series win and give themselves a clear path to host against #18 Alabama at Hawkins field.

The Crimson Tide sit at 35-10 (12-9 SEC) and sit at the number 13 spot in RPI, Vandy is 32-13 (12-9 SEC) and number 3 in RPI. The two are ranked number 18 and 15 in the current D1 Baseball poll, respectively.

Last week Alabama had a solid “get-right” performance at home versus Missouri after dropping their 3 prior SEC series to Oklahoma, Mississippi State, and LSU. They outscored the Tigers 26-9 over the 3 game stretch.

Any story previewing Alabama baseball has to start with Justin Lebron, the Crimson Tide’s superstar shortstop who got off to one of the best starts in history this season. He was batting over .400 and had hit 10 home runs before SEC play even started. Since then, however, he has cooled off in a major way in SEC play as he is batting just .247 with only 4 home runs and a strikeout rate just shy of 30%. Picking up the slack for Lebron, though, has been the little spoken of Kade Snell. The senior didn’t make an appearance until his junior season where he was in and out of the lineup, but is now an everyday starter and batting .380 overall with 8 home runs, 2 doubles, and a miniscule 5% strikeout rate. The craziest thing about his season is that he has improved in SEC play, where he is slashing .390/.462/.641 and has hit 5 home runs and 5 doubles. Richie Bonomolo Jr. is another high-contact guy who is hitting .344 on the year and .300 in SEC play. He is also 15-16 on stolen bases this year.

Beyond these three, there is some real talent but a lot of inconsistency in the Alabama lineup. First baseman Will Hodo has some major power, as evidenced by his 12 home runs, and is hitting .297 on the year, but has struggled in SEC play. He’s hitting just .205 with a 32% K rate, although he has hit 6 home runs, so the power is still there. Third baseman Jason Torres is a classic 3 true outcomes kinda guy, every plate appearance is either a home run, walk, or a strikeout it seems. He’s hitting .276 with 10 home runs and 30 walks, but has an egregiously high 34% K rate (which has gone up to 41% in-conference). The bottom of the lineup for Alabama has been a hodge-podge mix of 5 different players who rotate in and out of the lineup. None of them are batting over .260 other than Bryce Fowler and Garrett Staton (.266 and .318, respectively). Staton was injured early in the season and has been fighting his way back in the lineup since returning.

The Tide do have a few very good pitchers Vanderbilt’s order will have to try and figure out, headlined by ace redshirt sophomore Riley Quick. Quick has a 3.54 and pitches to contact extremely well. Interestingly, despite being by far the best starting pitcher on the roster, Quick is pitching on Saturdays of late, and will do the same against Vanderbilt. This makes that Friday matchup even more crucial for the ‘Dores this week. The other two starters are redshirt sophomore Tyler Fay and sophomore Zane Adams. Fay has been a consistent arm for the Tide who recently switched from a bullpen arm to Sunday starter in mid-April. He has no wins or losses on the year and has a 4.50 ERA, although that is up to 6.61 in SEC play. Adams has been a consistent starter throughout the season and has a 5.08 ERA (6.00 in-conference). Despite some less-than-stellar performances for Adams throughout the year, he is coming off a complete game pitched against Mizzou where he only allowed 1 run in 7 innings.

Alabama’s bullpen is shallow but the top-level talent is elite. Their best bullpen arm is Carson Ozmer who boasts a 1.24 ERA over 29.0 innings pitched this year. He has been used as their Game 1 relief man and closer, routinely coming in during the 5th or 6th inning and going through the end of the game. Beyond Ozmer, Braylon Meyers and Matthew Heiberger are their most used relief arms. Meyers is yet another relief ace with a 2.59 ERA over 31.1 innings pitched. Heiber is a set-up man who usually only comes in for an inning or two, but he has produced well only allowing 9 runs in 24.2 innings.

“Inconsistent” has been the most-used word to describe Vanderbilt throughout SEC play thus far, and it has to end now. JD Thompson and Cody Bowker will go between looking unstoppable to unplayable and the offense can’t decide whether it is one of the worst in recent memory or a slugging superpower. The only thing that has been consistent is that Connor Fennell is really, really good. Sure, one off amazing or really bad performances are expected, but the bipolar swings from looking like an Omaha team to a team that will barely make the NCAA tournament can’t keep happening. Being at home with finals over and nothing but baseball to focus on is the perfect situation to settle down and get into a groove heading into the last 3 weeks of the regular season.

The whole weekend is supposed to be cool and rainy which means both that there are chances for cancellations and double headers, and that playing conditions could be weird. If the conditions make Hawkins field more pitching-friendly than it already is, this benefits Vandy a lot more than Alabama, who have hit over 35 more home runs than Vanderbilt this year.

Last weekend those who watched Vanderbilt saw how much not having Hawks threw off the management of Vandy’s pitching, and the team’s overall performances in-game. Tim Corbin stated that he hopes Hawks will be able to pitch this weekend but was unwilling to commit to saying that he would be available to do so. Frankly, Vandy has to have him back, especially with how good Carson Ozmer and Braylon Meyers are in the opposing dugout. Having him back would allow one of Vandy’s starters to have an off night and still let the team have a chance in the game.

Alabama was a team that seemed to be in a bit of a free fall before dominating Missouri this weekend, so it remains to be seen if they’ve figured something out or if that’s just how bad Mizzou is (or maybe both). Despite their recent struggles, they still have a better record than Vandy overall and the same number of wins and losses in SEC play. This is about as even as two teams can be on paper, in the polls, and in the win-loss column. Vandy, however, plays much better at home than away, and has always responded well after a series loss. Finals being over is no small deal, either. Last, the weather conditions will favor Vandy heavily this weekend. This makes me think that the Vandyboys have a good chance of taking this series. I predict they’ll win 2-1 after riding another stellar Connor Fennell performance to take the rubber match on Sunday.