While the Commodores have not found much success in the win column recently, the return of key players Rodney Chatman and Liam Robbins gives reason for hope as the remainder of the season unfolds.

With Chatman and Robbins back in the mix, Vandy is back at full strength for the first time all season, and we can finally see the team as it was envisioned before the year. After a strong effort against 5th ranked Kentucky on Wednesday, the Commodores will be, at the very least, interesting to watch over the final nine games of the season.

Here’s a breakdown on some things we’ve seen recently, and what to expect going forward.

1. Turnovers have cost Vanderbilt many winnable games

It’s no secret that sloppy play has been the biggest weakness of Vanderbilt’s offense in recent games. Even when the team’s shooting numbers have been strong, the Commodores have struggled to stay in games because of their turnovers. As a result, Vanderbilt has dropped four of their last five, and missed many opportunities to pick up big SEC victories.

Vanderbilt lost close games to Tennessee, Kentucky, and South Carolina twice in the past few weeks. All of those games were decided by single-digit margins and turnovers became the deciding factor in all of them.

In those four games referenced, Vanderbilt lost by an average of 6.5 points per game, while averaging 18.5 turnovers per game.

These margins alone are currently the difference between sitting towards the bottom of the SEC at 11-10 and 3-6 in conference, and being a legitimate contender at 15-6 and 7-2.

Hindsight is always 20-20, of course. Things aren’t necessarily that simple. But something needs to be said about the clear correlation between positive results and protecting the basketball.

Against Kentucky, Vanderbilt fought back into the game regularly, but continued to get down when sloppy turnovers allowed the Wildcats to push the basketball down the floor and speed up Vandy’s defense.

Scotty Pippen Jr., who holds the teams highest usage rate, currently averages as many turnovers (3.4) as he does assists (3.4). The blame can’t fall entirely on Pippen, as he is also Vanderbilt’s main (and only) source of scoring, but that doesn’t excuse him from criticism.

In the four games referenced above, Pippen has averaged 6 turnovers per game. That’s simply not acceptable for the best player on the team who constantly has the ball in his hands.

You won’t win many games in the SEC when you play sloppy. That’s even more the case for a team like Vanderbilt that has struggled with matching the size and athleticism of much of their competition. Execution becomes everything.

Pippen and the Commodores need to clean up their play if they want to make some noise.

2. Post presence is much improved with the return of Robbins

Rebounding and interior presence was another huge weakness opponents exploited in matchups with Vanderbilt. Prior to the return of Robbins from injury, Quentin Millora-Brown was the only active member of the team over six-foot-eight. Vandy was at a size disadvantage in almost every game, and it was reflected in the box scores.

The Commodores were regularly getting out rebounded, especially on the defensive glass, making it nearly impossible to defend well for a full 40 minutes. They also struggled with containing the offensive production of the dominant big men they faced.

Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe went for 30 points in Memorial Gymnasium when his Wildcats came to Nashville. When Georgia came to town, Braelen Bridges had 14 points on 7-8 shooting. On the road trip to Gainesville, the Commodores got dominated on the glass by Florida’s front court despite the absence of Colin Castleton.

Liam Robbins may be putting an end to all of that.

Robbins played just 14 minutes in his season debut on Wednesday, and he did not score, but Vanderbilt’s post presence looked much improved. The second time around against Kentucky, Tshiebwe scored just 11 points and only scored two field goals.

Robbins and Millora-Brown battled well with the Kentucky big men, and Robbins being on the floor allowed Millora-Brown to take more breaks and stay fresh during a contentious battle.

Surprisingly, Vanderbilt outrebounded Kentucky 37-30 on Wednesday night.

3. The SEC standings are tight

Vanderbilt currently sits at 12th in the SEC with a 3-6 conference record, but they are far from out of things. An NCAA tournament berth seems like a total pipe dream at this point, but there is still a lot of ground that can be made up within the conference.

As of now, the Commodores are just one game back from the 6th seed in the conference. Five teams (Alabama, LSU, Florida, South Carolina, and Texas A&M) are currently tied with a 4-5 conference record. Just below them, Vandy is tied with Ole Miss at 3-6.

Five of the remaining nine games on the schedule will come against teams in that group immediately ahead of Vandy.

It will obviously be an uphill climb to accomplish anything down the stretch, but it's worth noting that in this year’s SEC, a few wins can jump you up the standings for SEC tournament seeding.

1. Will Liam Robbins be able to stay on the court?

It’s already been established that Robbins has a substantial impact on the potential success of Vanderbilt this season. Any aspirations of contending hinged on his return. Now that he’s back, it’s equally as important to monitor his health and his ability to contribute down the stretch.

Lower body injuries are no joke, especially for someone the size of Robbins. Ankle issues abruptly ended Robbins’ 2021 season with Minnesota, and now a stress fracture in his foot has forced Robbins to miss 20 games with Vandy. Robbins also dealt with a significant setback earlier this fall.

Jerry Stackhouse has said that Robbins is ready to go and was eager to get out there against Kentucky, but as we just saw with Rodney Chatman, injuries can plague any player that comes back too soon. Sometimes, it may even affect your play enough to bring down the team on the court.

The hope is that Robbins will stay healthy and will be back to his old self in no time, but you’d be a fool not to wonder if he can make the smooth transition and work back to being a starter. The Commodores cannot afford another setback.

2. Is Vanderbilt still able to get back into the mix?

As previously mentioned, the wild status of the SEC leaves many teams in the same boat, and a lot of rungs on the ladder within reach. A small two or three game winning streak at this point in the season can leapfrog middle of the pack teams to the top.

Vanderbilt still has a chance to get involved and make some noise in the SEC standings.

In terms of getting into the postseason mix, it unfortunately looks like the ship has sailed. Never say never, of course, but the Commodores would have to be a completely different team over the last month and a half to enter the conversation.

Last season, six SEC teams made it to the NCAA tournament. Of those teams, five of them went above .500 in SEC play. The Missouri Tigers, who went 8-8 in SEC play, snuck in after bolstering their resume with big wins over Oregon and Illinois. Ole Miss was 10-8 in the SEC and 16-12 overall, but ultimately came up short of an NCAA tournament bid.

Joe Lunardi’s recent bracketology for the 2022 tournament included seven SEC teams in the dance. Florida is currently listed as “last four in” team, while Mississippi State is sitting with the “first four out”.

Taking all of this into account, it’s safe to assume the same standards should apply this season to another competitive SEC. If that’s the case, Vanderbilt would probably need to go 6-3 down the stretch to even sniff tournament hopes, and they’d need to pick up a few impressive victories along the way.

Given the remaining schedule, that feels like a lottery ticket.

The two losses to South Carolina ended most of the Commodores hopes of playing late in March. Where they’re sitting now, the SEC tournament may be their one and only shot at a bid.

1. Vanderbilt will upset Tennessee in Knoxville on February 12th

An eight-point loss against a ranked in-state rival is not too shabby for a Vanderbilt team that was missing two of their top players. The Commodores were so undermanned they started Drew Weikert the last time they got a look at Rick Barnes and company.

Despite the adversity, Vanderbilt was able to give the Vols a good scare. The game was tied at 60 with 1:22 to go before Tennessee pulled away in the final seconds.

Scotty Pippen Jr. had one of his worst offensive performances all season. Pippen went 3-10 from the floor on that night, and the Commodores turned the ball over 21 times. They still made a game out of it.

I think Vandy matches up really well with this particular bunch. Tennessee, much like Vandy, lacks size. They don’t rebound well, they have poor rim protection, and they have no reliable scorers from the low blocks.

In the first matchup, Vanderbilt’s Jordan Wright was able to get more involved in the offense against an undersized team. Wright score 15 points in the first matchup, and should be able to do more of the same in round two.

Adding Robbins will only further give Vanderbilt an edge down low, and will create more space for Pippen to create shots for teammates.

The one thing the Vols do exceptionally well is create turnovers. They are currently 2nd in the SEC in steals per game, and their first win over Vandy can be credited to their tenacity on the defensive end and their ability to force Vandy into sloppy errors.

Hopefully, Chatman can help limit that in Knoxville. Chatman is a strong veteran leader than brings poise, IQ, and toughness to an inexperienced Vandy team. He also allows Pippen to work more off the ball, and probably brings down his chances of making mistakes.

The Volunteers are also willing passers, and lead the SEC assists, which means the Vandy defense will have many opportunities to get into passing lanes and create turnovers of their own.

This is probably an unlikely scenario I'm dreaming, but hey, that’s why they call it an upset.

I just feel strongly that the Commodores are due for a game where everything clicks, and this rivalry matchup in Knoxville continues to jump out at me. If Robbins and Chatman get further acclimated with the offense and are playing regular minutes by then, this will be one to watch.

Circle February 12th on the calendar. You’re welcome.