The season's done, and with it, our final look at how VU's hitters fared in 2019.
First, an explanation of the stats below:
RC/27: An estimate of how many runs a player "creates" per every 27 outs he makes.
BABIP: How often a ball hit in the field of play goes for a hit. This takes strikeouts and home runs (which aren't in the field of play) out of the equation. Sometimes (but not always) abnormally low or high BABIPs indicate good or poor "luck."
Ct: The percentage of at-bats a player puts the ball in play.
BB - K%: The percentage of plate appearances in which a player walks or strikes out.
wOBA: Weighted on-base percentage; a stat created to explain productivity per at-bat, explained here.
I don't have the historical background across decades of college to make this statement, but you'd have to think the 2019 Commodores go down as one of the best hitting lineups in college baseball.
Teams averaged 5.85 runs per game this year; that's per game, without respect to whether games went extra innings, hit in the bottom half of the ninth, etc. The Commodores averaged 8.56 runs per 27 outs they made and that came over 71 games against the second-toughest schedule in America.
The only thing one can really hold against the Commodores was that VU struggled in Omaha. The production dipped from an average of nearly nine full runs per 27 outs to where it settled after six games in the CWS. But as often as not, the Commodores were facing All-Americans, high draft picks, guys who'll one day be high draft picks, etc., on the hill, and most teams are going to struggle in those instances.
This lineup had everything. It had three superstar hitters in Austin Martin, J.J. Bleday and Stephen Scott, excellent college hitters in Pat DeMarco, Ty Duvall, Philip Clarke and Ethan Paul, one a tad above average in Harrison Ray, and one slightly below average in Julian Infante. It slugged 100 homers and hit 164 doubles, it stole 80 bases, and drove opposing coaches crazy trying to defend against it all year.
Now, to 2020.
What we know or can surmise with reasonable certainty:
- The Commodores are losing seniors Paul , Scott and Infante. Social media hinted last night that DeMarco, a draft-eligible sophomore, was signing with the Yankees. Bleday, the fourth overall pick of the draft, is 99 percent certain to be gone. Reserves Walker Grisanti and Kiambu Fentress are also graduating seniors.
- Ray went un-drafted and will return.
- Three outstanding reserves in Jayson Gonzalez, Cooper Davis and Isaiah Thomas should return. Each are heavy favorites to win jobs. Justin Henry-Malloy and Dominic Keegan are talented hitters who should return and have an excellent shot at playing time, if not win full-time jobs. This isn't to imply that the others aren't returning, but those five appear to have an edge on the field in terms of carving out roles of significance.
What we don't know:
- Whether Clarke will sign with Toronto. I've heard contradictory takes on that situation, and elaborated on that here. Either way, the Blue Jays will likely have to play a luxury tax of several thousand dollars if they want to sign Clarke.
- Whether Duvall returns. The Athletics couldn't pay their 25th-round pick any more than $125,000 without penalty. Duvall has senior eligibility but loses all leverage if he doesn't sign now. Duvall would seemingly retain his lineup spot, the question would be whether he catches more or not, which would be dictated by Clarke's decision.
If everything goes Vanderbilt's way, a lineup next year could look like this:
1. Martin, CF (R) - 12.7 RC/27 in 2019
2. Davis, LF (L) - 7.9
3. Clarke, C (L) - 7.6
4. Thomas, RF (R) - 11.5
5. Duvall, DH (L) - 7.7
6. Gonzalez, 3B (R) - 10.3
7. Ray, 2B (R) - 6.0
8. Keegan (R) - 3.9 - or - Malloy (R) - 2.9, 1B
9. Carter Young (S), SS
That's highly speculative, and I'm guessing that neither Thomas (.458 BABIP) nor Gonzalez (.559) will produce at that level, because they got excellent luck on balls in play, plus, their spots to play were often cherry-picked this year, which won't be the case if they're full-timers.
On the other hand, both should improve with age, as may several of their veteran teammates. And Keegan and Malloy are better hitters than their 2019 production showed.
Of course, should Clarke or Duvall--or worse, both--go, the forecast isn't nearly as rosy. Still, the Commodores have the talent to field an above-average lineup either way.
* LATE NOTE: Clarke signed with Toronto about three hours after this piece published. Keegan should compete for at-bats at catcher and/or first, and freshman catchers C.J. Rodriguez and Max Romero could both be factors behind the plate.
