1. At 1-2 on the season and coming off bad loss on the road at Georgia Tech, where do you see the mindset of the Commodores on Saturday playing on the road against WKU?
The Commodores seem to have circled the wagons a bit, with both coach Derek Mason and players repeatedly talking during Tuesday's press conference about having "flushed" the horrible performance against Georgia Tech and moving on to next week. They spoke of Tuesday morning's practice as being "chippy."
These are the things you'd want to hear, but they're also just words.
We heard about how prepared they were for Georgia Tech during the off-season work and a week of practice, and that didn't turn out well. I've been to hundreds of press conferences, and the next one where I see a team admit to being unprepared and unmotivated for the upcoming game will be the first.
In other words, I can't really answer that until we see what VU shows on Saturday.
2. Aside from the Middle Tennessee game, Vanderbilt's offensive production has been stagnant. With defenses focusing on stopping Ralph Webb and the run game, how much pressure is on Kyle Shurmer and the wide receivers to make plays going forward?
A lot.
Webb's been tremendous and the offensive line has done a respectable job in the run game, but the Commodore offense, through three games, has been unable to figure out how to get any consistency going in the passing game.
At some point--and actually, you're seeing it already--teams will stick as many defenders as they can conceivably put in the box and dare VU to beat them in the run. Until VU can prove it can make plays through the air, which hasn't happened under Mason, you'll continue to see the same thing.
3. Vanderbilt's defense was ranked in the top 20 last year and return a lot of their starters for this season, what have you seen from them so far this year?
Everyone just presumed the defense would be good again, but it's been anything but that.
If you want to rewind to 2015, the decline actually started in the last two games of that season. Vanderbilt allowed 25 points (18 on field goals) and 486 yards against Texas A&M, and 523 yards and 53 points (though not all the scores were on offense) vs. Tennessee.
Over that five-game sample, that's an average of 30.6 points and 465 yards per game. Those are numbers that, if applied to this season's national rankings, would place VU 88th and 113th, respectively.
In other words, the numbers are bad and VU hasn't passed the look test, either, allowing Georgia Tech way too much room both running and throwing the ball. The secondary has struggled in a big way with deep balls and deep outs over that span as well.
The talent's there for things to improve--inside linebacker Zach Cunningham, a junior, is a likely first-round NFL pick for 2017, and outside linebacker Oren Burks is also very good--and VU has been at least okay most of the time against the rush vs. non-triple-option teams, but we need to see vast improvement and more consistency soon.
4. What are some mismatches that you feel Vanderbilt can take advantage of on either side of the ball against the Hilltoppers?
I haven't seen Western play this year, but on paper, the 2.9 yards per carry that WKU averages obviously is sub-standard. VU has been good under Mason in short-yardage situations on the defensive side, and was outstanding last year in third down defense. If VU can force third- and fourth-and-short situations where the Hilltoppers feel compelled to run the ball, there's some hope there.
On the other side, it's hard to spot much. Vanderbilt would love to run the ball but with WKU giving up 2.9 yards per rush--and most notably, just 3.2 to Alabama, with only 3.7 if you adjust for sacks--that doesn't seem likely.
If that's how it goes, Vanderbilt will have to find some big plays down the field, and while there are youngsters who flashed that potential in camp--notably, tight end Jared Pinkney and freshmen Kalija Lipscomb and Donaven Tennyson--we've yet to see that in a game. That's the real concern for VU is that Western's strength on that side of the ball matches up exactly with the only thing that the Commodores have been competent in doing.
5. How do you see this game playing out and what's your score prediction?
Extrapolating a final score from the Vegas over-under (51.5) and point spread (WKU -7.5), you get something in the neighborhood of 30-22, depending on how you do your rounding. While I'm not sure VU can possibly play worse than it did last week, I'm not very confident it can score 22 against anything less than a bad FBS defense right now (I don't think Western's fits that description) or its ability to defend longer throws, which the Hilltoppers will certainly try.
I've been off badly on my picks in VU's first three games, but those were also under the assumption of believing the Commodores were a different team than they've turned out to be. If the 2016 Vanderbilt that we've seen shows up, I'd expect something along the lines of 34-17, Hilltoppers.
