Chris Lee answers five key questions about the Commodores coming into the Mississippi State game, as asked by BulldogBlitz.com's Russell Johnson.
1. With Vandy's struggles so far this season offensively, what have been some of the biggest factors in the slow start? Any major adjustments you could see being made in an attempt to gain some momentum offensively?
Other than freshman quarterback Ken Seals--who's played well under the circumstances--the Commodores have struggled almost everywhere on offense.
A pre-season reset here is important.
VU lost every quarterback who played a snap last year. It lost its three best offensive play-makers, including running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn, now with Tampa Bay. Before the season, it had four key offensive linemen opt out from a line that was probably likely to struggle anyway. In addition, the Commodores don't have a running back to match anything close to Vaughn's talent and a receiving corps that struggles to get open.
Vanderbilt has also used two walk-on kickers and managed just one field goal all year.
But it's not totally without hope.
Seals has the look of a future star. Tight end Ben Bresnahan will be one of the league's best in a year or two, wide receiver Cam Johnson caught 14 balls last week, and receiver Amir Abdur-Rahman (though quiet lately) has some talent. Those four need to make some plays, and I think the key is for the Commodores to find something--using motion, playing faster, whatever works--to catch lightning in a bottle while getting the ball in the hands of those guys.
2. While the betting line has Mississippi State as a two-touchdown favorite, they have struggle significantly on offense as of late. How do you see this Vanderbilt defense attacking the air raid offense?
The Commodores have struggled big-time against the pass, and gave up 12.2 yards per throw to Ole Miss last week.
The biggest problem: Vanderbilt just can't cover Southeastern Conference receivers. It's one of the slowest back sevens I've ever seen at this level. In addition, defenders constantly look out of position and struggle with the basics of tackling
.It would also help if the Commodores could generate a pass rush. That looked promising with defensive end Dayo Odeyingbo and edge rusher Andre Mintzein VU's season-opening, 17-12 loss to Texas A&M, but we haven't seen anything like it since.
The bottom line if I'm State: Find athletes with some speed and get them the ball in space, because VU hasn't shown an ability to stop it.
3. Coming into the game, it has now been made known that true freshman stud Donovan Kaufman is going to miss the rest of the season. While it is going to be hard to directly "replace" him with someone on the roster, who are some names to know at that position that have been asked to step up in his place?
Kaufman was also a freshman, and there was a learning curve there. However, he's also maybe the most talented option Vandy had back there, and there aren't a lot of guys who pop off the page in the defensive backfield.
The Commodores list Dashaun Jerkinsas the starter there. Jerkins is a redshirt sophomore who's started most of the time he's been healthy the past two seasons. He's shown flashes at times of being a nice SEC player, but like the rest of the secondary, hasn't made a big splash this season.
4. Mississippi State fans have already gotten a bit uneasy about the air raid as the program nears the midpoint of the first season under Leach. What's the vibe like around Nashville in regards to the program Derek Mason has built and is working to build? While I don't believe he is coaching for his job or anything like that, but what kind of impact could the result of this game have on his status? What are the fans and locals expecting this game to look like?
Contracts and buyouts are a secret at Vanderbilt, but a source I spoke with this week believes Mason has four full years left on his contract after this season. Last year's buy-out was estimated at $15 million; people I've spoken with believe it's signficantly less than that this season but still not cheap.
The Commodores are, even by Vanderbilt standards, a terrible football team. They've lost their last three games by a combined 101 points to three teams that are probably going to end the season in the bottom half of the SEC. The last time VU held a home football game with fans (last November), only about 6,000 fans attended.
All eyes are on chancellor Daniel Diermeier now. Diermeier just arrived at Vanderbilt this summer and every indication has been that he wants to win at football, and obviously this is nowhere close. Mason is in Year Seven at VU and will end this one without a winning campaign, and Year Eight doesn't look promising.
In other words, I think the chancellor has a decision to make at year's end. I think December could get interesting.
5. What players do you see as x-factors in the game? Any specific position battles you could see playing a determining role in the game? Any type of prediction?
I'm not predicting an upset, but, I think if VU is to pick up a win, this is the kind of game where it has the best chance of this happening. The Commodores need a low-scoring game where the other team turns it over a few times. State fits the blueprint of that type of opponent, although I think MSU has better athletes and is better coached and that might negate what on paper wouldn't be the worst matchup for the Commodores.
I think that makes Odeyingbo and Mintze keys. Could the Commodores get a pick-6 or a fumble return for a score? The best recipe would be pressure off the edge creating those opportunities. You're going to need points somewhere and if the Commodores couldn't get more than 21 against Ole Miss, it doesn't bode well this week.
On offense, I think it comes down to one of the aforementioned pass-catchers generating a few big plays--something that's mostly been absent from the VU offense.
Of VU's five games this season, this is the best I've felt coming in in terms of Vanderbilt beating a point spread just because MSU struggles to score. I don't see a win, but a 24-10-type game doesn't seem unreasonable.
