This is the first rematch of the year for both teams, and both teams find themselves in similar positions. For Kentucky, however, their situation is unique. The Wildcats, who were picked to win the SEC, are on the verge of not even making the NCAA Tournament. At 5-4 in the conference, Kentucky has all but lost hope of competing for the Eastern Division championship.
UK lost to Vanderbilt at Rupp Arena last month for the first time in history. But the rarity of that event was lost just four days later, when Alabama did the same thing, winning 68-64. Incredibly, the Wildcats almost pulled a trifecta the next week, rallying from 15 down to beat South Carolina.
Things haven't looked much better recently, either. UK got blown out in Gainesville last week, 95-80. But the worst was yet to come, when Tennessee came to Rupp and buried UK 75-67. In that game, hometowner Chris Lofton put 31 points on the Wildcats.
Kentucky is drowning, but they are marginally improved since Vanderbilt played them. All of that improvement is coming from Randolph Morris, who has provided a scoring presence that was non-existent earlier in the season. At the guard positions, Rondo and Crawford continue to prove that both were vastly over-rated coming into this season.
At 15-8, UK has a 41 RPI, which is historically right at the cut-off for the NCAA at-large field. The bad news is, Kentucky's remaining schedule is murderous, with away games at South Carolina, LSU and Tennessee, and at home against Florida. They also have to face Ole Miss and Georgia, both who could pull of the upset. A loss to Vanderbilt would be the second time this year UK has lost three in a row, and would put them in a must-win/can't lose situation heading into the SEC Tournament.
The key for UK against Vandy is to do the obvious: Pound it inside to Morris, get to the foul line, and force Vandy to handle the ball well and shoot well from three. So far, the obvious has been missed by Rondo and Crawford, however. In the Tennessee loss, Kentucky's guards shot -- and missed -- four consecutive 3-pointers in their last four possessions, and Morris never touched the ball once.
SCOUTING VANDERBILT
Vanderbilt is, without a doubt, the hard luck team of the year in the Southeastern Conference. No other team has done so well in virtually every statistical category, and has done so poorly in the won-loss column.
The Commodores' hard luck story got even harder on Wednesday, as VU twice had Alabama down for the count only to see the Tide pull off unbelievably lucky plays in the final eight seconds of regulation to force overtime. After the loss, VU's players and coaches seemed exhasperated at their seemingly impossible task of pulling out a win.
After beating Kentucky last month, VU has dropped six of their last seven games -- two in overtime, and two at home to also-rans South Carolina and Georgia. With an RPI of 65, the Commodores are now well below the bubble. Barring a winning streak here at the end, only a sweep of the SEC Tournament will send Vandy dancing.
Vandy fans may be beyond moral victories, but a sweep of Kentucky would almost be akin to the football team beating UT in Knoxville. VU hasn't swept the Wildcats since the '73-'74 season.
Regardless, if anything this team proved on Wednesday that they still have a lot of fight left in them. Look for a similar effort Saturday.
The key for Vanderbilt is to follow their shots from outside and not get into foul trouble in the paint. Morris is the only player who could turn this decisively for the Wildcats. If Terrell and Carroll hold their own, and VU continues to shoot well from three, the Commodores should gain the sweep.
Scored a season-high 20 points (9-of-14 FGs) against Tennessee.
OUR PREDICTIONS
Mike Rapp (Franklin, TN), VandySports.com publisher
Kentucky is better since they first played Vanderbilt, but are they playing better?
There's no doubt that Morris has been a huge presence for them in the paint; Imagine where they'd be right now had Tubby not "found" that fax. But all Morris has done is made Kentucky competitive. As the SEC season tilts toward March, even the Blue Mist loyalists are being forced to accept the obvious: This is not a good basketball team. By any standard, and certainly by the one established by UK.
I always say that you find out which teams are really good in the second half of the conference season. Lots of teams look great in January, but the ones that survive are those who have a second gear -- those that can make adjustments, add in a new layer of wrinkles, and find that chemistry that takes them to the next level.
Neither of these teams have shown that capability yet, but Vanderbilt certainly has the better potential to do so. Vanderbilt looked like a totally different team in Tuscaloosa. Their set offense worked better than it has since the Georgetown win last fall. And perhaps more importantly, the coaches were more enthusiastic and encouraging than I have seen them this year.
It's been fairly well known among those of us who follow this program that there has been no small amount of internal talk about playing time. Whether it had to do with Moore's leave of absence or something else, for the first time this season Gordon and Cage seemed to play without an eye on the bench.
If the team can play that way tomorrow, they should get the win. And I think that is exactly what they will do.
My prediction: Vanderbilt 71, Kentucky 65
Chris Lee (Nashville, TN), VandySports.com publisher
Who would have thought that since that win at Rupp Arena, the Commodores would have won just once? Yet that's exactly where Vanderbilt stands one month after their historic win.
Things have changed significantly for both squads since, and while both teams have struggled, one thing is clear: Kentucky has gotten much-better, while Vandy has gotten worse.
There are two things I don't like about this one from a Vandy perspective. First, Kentucky's two marquee players, Morris and Rondo, match up at the two positions where the Commodores are paper-thin depth-wise. Secondly, I worry about Vandy's ability to avoid a letdown in the midst of a crumbling season and coming off yet another gut-wrenching loss.
Many Commodore fans see a team that hasn't quit and a team that may be more cohesive with the Mario Moore distraction temporarily removed. However, that's just one half of the equation, as the Commodores can't seem to beat even the two worst teams in their division at home. I don't think that bodes well against a UK team that, right now, has more to play for that Vanderbilt.
Prediction: Kentucky 65, Vanderbilt 59
Tommy Crockett (Reno, NV), VandySports.com basketball board moderator
The University of Kentucky is in firm control, at present, of third place in the SEC-East. Vanderbilt University, on the other hand, is fighting it out with the South Carolina Gamecocks for last place in the division despite a USC-East sweep of Florida. Four of the division bottom dwellers sport eight or more losses on the season while Tennessee has only lost thrice overall. Say What?
Both the Wildcats and the Commodores are in the middle of seasons that have left their fans both disillusioned and befuddled. Let's face it Kentucky is going to be playing in the post-season while the jury is still out on the Commodore's chances be it NIT or NCAA. Outside of Rondo and Morris the starting lineup for the Commodores is simply put more impressive than the Wildcat starters. Sparks had his fifteen minutes, but returned to earth in this season.
This will be the first sweep of the Wildcats since Dorothy Hamill was the in the first year of her US figure skating championship run and darling of the world, Lee J Cobb (Twelve Angry Men) was fighting for life before passing away, Skylab, was still orbiting after a year in space before crashing back to Earth five years from that point in history and Richard M. Nixon was President of the United States. It still won't be easy.
My Prediction: Vanderbilt 61, Kentucky 56
Jesse Johnson (Murfreesboro, TN), VandySports.com publisher
When Vandy beat Kentucky in Rupp Arena, it was supposed to signify that Vanderbilt basketball was finally starting to take the next step and be a contender for the SEC title. Instead, Vandy has done nothing but unravel since, losing six out of their last seven games. This has been due in part to a lot of factors. 1. Vanderbilt defense has not came up during crunch time situations. 2. The Vanderbilt offense has struggled through some of the same droughts they went through during the second half of the Kentucky game, which has caused them to give up leads. 3. Confidence and aggression. Vandy did show more at Alabama, but before that, the past couple of games have seen Vandy collapse after strong first half showings.
So currently, Vandy is at the bottom of the SEC east, and looking to somehow jump start the final month of the season, and in comes Kentucky. The Wildcats have been reeling themselves and this will be a big game for them, for revenge purposes and in hopes of securing a NCAA tourney spot.
I think the key will be guarding the perimeter. This has been Vandy's biggest weakness this season, and they are going to have to try to contain Rondo's drives and kickouts to a standing still shooter. Kentucky has been a very poor 3-point shooting team at times this year, but they can always get hot, and most teams have gotten hot from 3 this season at the "shooter's gym" that is Memorial. Vanderbilt must stop this, or Kentucky might take control and lead throughout, like Georgia did last weekend.
Defending the post and defensive rebounding will be very important, but the real key is getting offensive rebounds against Kentucky. If Vandy can get second chance points against the Wildcats, there's a good chance they could finally get off the shnide and get a rare sweep over Kentucky.