Indiana State (41-16) has been a model of consistency all season. The Sycamores had a losing streak greater than two games just once, that coming when NCAA Tournament 2-seed and Missouri Valley Conference co-champ Dallas Baptist took all three games from ISU in a mid-may series in Dallas, followed by ISU's loss to Bradley.
The Sycamores then turned their play up a notch. ISU won seven of its last eight heading to Nashville, losing only to Illinois State in the conference tournament, and subsequently winning the MVC Tournament. That included two wins over DBU in the last two games.
The Sycamores, ranked 23rd by D1 Baseball and 25th per Baseball America, ended the regular season ranked for first time since 1989. They finished the regular season third in the MVC, just one game out of first in the nation's No. 6 RPI league.
Indiana State sports 14 seniors on its roster, including three redshirt seniors. Add to that 16 juniors (four redshirts) and the Sycamores have a wealth of experience.
ISU is built for regional play in another way: The Sycamores are 11-1 in doubleheaders..
Vanderbilt and Indiana State met April 16 in Nashville, with the Commodores winning, 7-1.
It's ISU's 10th trip to the NCAA Tournament, and first since 2014.
Dungan leads balanced, experienced lineup
Note: RC/27 is based on a Bill James formula that estimates how many runs a player "creates" per 27 outs he makes.
Eight of the nine ISU lineup starters are seniors, with junior catcher Max Wright the only exception. Second baseman Jarrod Watkins earned first-team All-MVC honors, and right fielder Raby Enriquez, second-team honors.
However, shortstop Clay Dungan may be ISU's best player. He led the team in homers, on-base and slugging percentage, runs (53), walks (35) and steals (7-7).
Senior Chris Ayers, who started just 20 games all season, came on late with three of his four homers in the MVC Tournament, seizing the DH job away from Romero Harris, who had a disappointing year after hitting .312/.384/.592 with eight homers in 2018.
Center fielder Luke Fegen also dropped off markedly from last year's .298/.409/.382, but has come on lately. He's one of five ISU players, along with Dungan, Ayers, Watkins and left fielder C.J. Huntley, who are hating over .300 in their last 10 games.
The Sycamores hit well in the first inning, out-scoring opponents, 66-19. They rank 19th in the country with 92 hit-by-pitches.
It's more of an old-school offense that relies on making contact. ISU struck out just 15 percent of the time while launching just 42 home runs.
ISU scored 365 runs this year, but advanced stats suggest perhaps that was an overachievement, as it was 24 percent more than the RC/27 formula predicted.
Sycamores one of America's best at pitching, defense
Note: "CERA" is component ERA, which is what a pitcher's ERA would normally be given the frequency and type of base runners allowed. "FP - K - HR%" is the percentage of times a pitcher gives up a free pass (walk or hit batsman), strikes out a batter or yields a homer.
Like the lineup, ISU plays more an old-school brand of baseball, based less on overwhelming an opponent by strikeouts, but one based on generating softer contact and letting the defense do the work.
It succeeded. The Sycamores registered just 409 punch-outs--they struck opponents out 20 percent of the time, compared to Vanderbilt's 27 percent--yet ranked 20th nationally in ERA (3.60) and 25th in fielding percentage (.978). Opponents got hits on balls in play at just a .276 clip, a great rate for any level of baseball, and an extraordinary level for a college squad. ISU allowed 1.26 runners per inning, and had a 3.23 component ERA.
The Sycamores go about seven-deep with quality arms, but given how durable those arms were, it seems to be enough. No. 2 starter Collin Liberatore and closer Tyler Grauer were first-team All-MVC players, with reliever Tyler Ward making the second team.
Liberatore, whom Vanderbilt would likely see in Game 2 should both ISU and the Commodores win on Friday, allowed just 1.07 runners per inning. The Pitt transfer and MVC Newcomer of the Year allows some extra-base hits (eight homers, 17 doubles, a triple) but limited opponents to a .237 average on balls in play.
Friday night starter Triston Polley threw three complete games and improved markedly after posting a 3.66 ERA with 55 Ks and 43 walks in 94 1/3 innings last year.
No. 3 starter Tyler Whitbread was also stingy in allowing base runners (1.07 per inning) and walked only 15 men in 78 2/3 innings.
ISU is 35-0 this year when leading after seven games thanks to Grauer, who had eight saves after notching three last season, and Ward, who made 20 relief appearances.
Other than perhaps needing another good arm or two, the Sycamores' biggest weakness is a fourth starter. VU touched Geremy Guerrero for three runs, three hits and a walk in his 1 2/3-inning appearance in Nashville. VU touched Austin Cross and Jake Ridgway for a run each in two combined innings, while hitting Grauer (2 2/3, six hits, two runs) well.
Lefty Austin Moralis (1 2/3, one hit, one walk, two strikeouts, one hit, no runs) fared best against VU in the earlier matchup.
Third baseman Jake Means was the MVC's Defensive Player of the Year, with Enriquez and Polley also earning All-MVC defensive honors.
Indiana State, by the numbers
Massey composite power ranking: 28
RPI: 24
RPI strength of schedule: 125
vs. RPI top 25: 2-4
vs. RPI top 50: 7-9
vs. RPI top 100: 13-10
Road: 16-13
Neutral: 10-1
Runs scored per 27 outs made: 6.53
Runs allowed per 27 outs recorded: 3.99
Coach: Mitch Hannahs (199-131, six seasons)