Vandy had high expectations for 2019, and has somehow been able to meet, if not exceed them, heading into its Friday game with Ohio State in the Nashville Regional. With a 49-10 overall record, the Commodores had a case as the country's best team, but finished No. 2 in the regular-season rankings, as well as the overall seeding for the CAA Tournament.
Starting with an April 16 win over Indiana State, the Commodores have won all but one of their last 23 games. VU, hosting for the seventh time, is making their 14th-straight trip to the NCAAs, the second-longest active streak behind Florida State.
The Commodores, the near-consensus preseason No. 1 pick, kept that ranking for a montht. A 2-1 series loss at Texas A&M in the Southeastern Conference season opener dropped VU out of that spot for good.
But Vandy never fell far behind. Though also losing a series at Georgia in the conference's fourth weekend, VU went 9-6 against the first half of its SEC schedule. All games came against NCAA Tournament teams, with Georgia and Arkansas getting top-8 overall seeds.
The back half of the schedule was considerably easier. Though three of its last five series came on the road, Vandy faced just one regional team--Auburn, at home--and ripped through it with a 14-1 record. With a 23-7 league mark, the 'Dores clinched the SEC regular-season title with a sweep of Kentucky on the final weekend.
For good measure, the Commodores won all their midweek games after a lone loss to Austin Peay on Feb. 27. That included a contest at top-8 overall seed Louisville, as well as a midweek game with potential Nashville Regional opponent Indiana State.
The schedule got tougher as the Commodores faced four NCAA Tournament teams--including three regional hosts---in the SEC Tournament. VU ripped Auburn and LSU while winning one-run games over Mississippi State, and finally, Ole Miss, to capture the league's tournament crown, too.
It was the first time anyone's done that since coach Tim Corbin's 2007 VU squad. Corbin was named the league's Coach of the Year.
Vanderbilt is the heavy favorite to emerge from Nashville, and according to some oddsmakers, the top overall favorite for the tournament.
Bleday, Martin lead one of the nation's best offenses
Note: RC/27 is the number of runs a player "creates" per 27 outs made, according to a formula originating with Bill James.
Vanderbilt scored 501 runs, tying it for third in America in total runs scored with Coastal Carolina and Wright State, behind only Arizona and New Mexico State. VU's schedule was considerably difficult than the other four, meaning that the Commodores, who scored 8.93 runs per 27 outs, may have America's best offense.
Whatever you want in an offense--speed, power, patience, balance, handed-ness, star power--Vanderbilt has it. Probable first-team All-Americans in right fielder J.J. Bleday and third baseman Austin Martin lead the way.
Bleday, whose 26 homers leads the country, is one of the four finalists for the Golden Spikes Award. He's VU's MVP thanks to playing in six more games Martin, but the two produced at a nearly identical rate.
Martin strikes out just 11 percent of the time, walked five times more than he whiffed, and has an other-worldly knack for putting the barrel on the ball and hitting line drives. His running was limited due to hitting in front of Bleday, but he still swiped 17 of 22 bags.
Bleday, the SEC regular-season and tournament MVP, had a career-worst strikeout rate (17 percent) as he added more loft to his swing, but the tradeoff was worth it. He'll likely be one of the top 10 players selected on Monday's MLB Draft.
Left fielder Stephen Scott had an All-SEC caliber season, but was lost in the attention shown to Bleday and Martin. Scott's power normally heats up about this time, and the lefty has homered five times in his last nine games.
The same can be said of center fielder Pat DeMarco, who struggled to start the year and then missed 18 games due to injury. He had 29 hits in his subsequent 21 games and earned All-SEC Tournament honors by going 6-of-17 with a key homer in the title game.
Shortstop Ethan Paul showed extra-base pop to all areas of the field this year. The steady four-year starter has three homers and two doubles in his last six games.
Philip Clarke and Ty Duvall compound the problem with pitching to the lineup because neither chases pitches out of the zone. Duvall walked 35 times against 32 strikeouts, while Clarke, who's got more home-run power and was a first-team All-SEC selection, fanned just 12 percent of the time.
The wild cards are first baseman Julian Infante, a preseason All-SEC pick heading 2018, and second baseman Harrison Ray.
Infante has struggled much of the last two seasons. Infante's had major issues with making contact--he's striking out 29 percent of the time--but is capable of hitting tape-measure home runs. Ray has 12 extra-base hits in his last 12 games and has shown much better strike-zone discipline in that span. The speedy junior is 17 of 20 on stolen bases.
The Commodores have at least four players on the bench who's start for nearly every team in America.
Cooper Davis, who has elite on-base skills and probably the best speed on the team, opened the year in left, but missed over a month with a leg injury and couldn't crack the lineup again with virtually everyone else hitting well.
With Davis and DeMarco out, Isaiah Thomas hit so well he nearly forced himself into the lineup. There's a lot of swing-and-miss to his game, but Thomas has tremendous raw power. The same can be said of third baseman Jayson Gonzalez, VU's Opening-Day starter at third, and corner outfield reserve Walker Grisanti.
Kiambu Fentress is used almost exclusively as a pinch-runner and a late-inning defensive replacement.
Power arms, solid defense lead the wayÂ
Note: "CERA" is component ERA, which is what a pitcher's ERA would normally be given the frequency and type of base runners allowed. "FP - K - HR%" is the percentage of times a pitcher gives up a free pass (walk or hit batsman), strikes out a batter or yields a homer.
The Commodores may not have a pitching staff to match some of Corbin's best, but it's still one most programs would love to have. VU has four starters who can work into the seventh, a lights-out closer in Tyler Brown, and lots of power arms to bridge the gap.
Control was a frequent struggle across most of the staff. However, Vandy allowed a collective .229 average, and allowed only 24 home runs.
VU didn't lose a series opener all season. Junior Drake Fellows (11-0) started all those games and went at least five innings in 13 of his 15 tries, allowing three earned runs or fewer eight times. Three times, he yielded four, and allowed five twice. He's can dominate at times--the highlight was a complete-game shutout of Florida--but is vulnerable when he doesn't have control of his fastball-slider combo.
Vanderbilt has not named starters besides Fellows, but freshman Kumar Rocker will get one of the first three.
Rocker, who could be the top pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, has a fastball that sits in the mid-90s, a terrific slider and a change-up that he uses at times. The freshman is durable, works quickly and has great control and command, though he has issues holding runners on and tends to give up runners in clusters.
The question is whether Vanderbilt will use mid-week starter Mason Hickman, who opened Vandy's SEC Tournament run by striking out nine Auburn hitters in six innings while yielding one run, or Patrick Raby.
Hickman doesn't dominate in the way his strikeout numbers suggest--his fastball tops out around 91-- but he commands, controls and mixes his pitches well and has shown remarkable consistency. The sophomore will allow some hard contact, but gives up so few base runners that it limits the damage.
Raby is tough to square up--just 10 extra-base hits all year--but lacks consistent control. That's sometimes accompanied with an inability to put hitters away with a 90-ish fastball. That's been the case the last two starts, during which Raby combined to give up nine runs (five earned), with five walks and 10 hits over 4 1/3 innings.
On the other hand, the senior, 30-11 in his career, is the program's all-time wins leader and gave up just two earned runs over 24 innings in the four starts preceding that.
Hickman is probably VU's best starter, but has also been used in relief this year. Corbin is also a creature of habit, and the 'Dores have started Raby every weekend and not used him out of the bullpen this season.
Brown, a first-team all-conference pick, has been special in the closer's role, amassing an absurd 7.9 strikeout-to-walk ratio without giving up a home run. His fastball tops out around 95 and several of his 14 saves have come over his nine multiple-inning outings.
VU has three power lefties in Hugh Fisher, Jake Eder and Zach King, and another in A.J. Franklin who's flashed good things at times.
Fisher, who has a fastball that sits at 95-96 and has a wipeout slider, has the best stuff, but frequently struggles to command it.
Eder is another elite arm whose stuff is perhaps a bit inferior to Fisher's, but Eder has better control and has been great over his last four outings.
King and Franklin are wild cards.
King, another pro prospect, was one of VU's most dependable arms the last two years, but hit a rough patch in mid-season and hasn't seemed to get his confidence back.
Franklin flashed brilliance over short spurts over a five-outing sample, but hasn't pitched well in his two outings over the last three weeks.
Then, there's right-hander Ethan Smith, who may be the best of the bunch. Smith, who gave up a .146 average against, can easily run his fastball into the mid-90s. Over his last five outings, the freshman has allowed two runs with 16 strikeouts against four walks in a span of 10 2/3 innings.
Jackson Gillis, who's been a key arm in VU's last two postseasons, could get a spot appearance if the 'Dores have a big lead. Chance Huff is on the roster, but didn't have an appearance in conference games after throwing 17 1/3 innings, most early in the year.
The defense, led by Paul at short, Infante at first , Martin at third and Clarke behind the plate, may not be as special as a .982 fielding percentage suggests, but it's been plenty good and does everything one could reasonably ask.
Paul, who moved from second, has been a rock, committing just six errors and rarely exercises bad judgment. Clarke has a nice arm and has gunned down nine of the 33 runners who try to steal against him. Infante was selected to the SEC's Gold Glove squad, as was Martin. Ray will make mental errors from time to time, but more than makes up for it with spectacular glove work.
VU is solid, though not spectacular, in the outfield. Scott had issues getting reads on balls late in the season, but has been solid most of his career. DeMarco is adequate in center, while Bleday has a great arm in right and tracks balls fairly well.
Vanderbilt, by the numbers
Massey composite power ranking: 2
RPI: 1
RPI strength of schedule: 8
vs. RPI top 25: 15-6
vs. RPI top 50: 26-8
vs. RPI top 100: 36-9
Home: 28-5
Runs scored per 27 outs made: 8.93
Runs allowed per 27 outs recorded: 4.0
Coach: Tim Corbin (17th season at VU, 730-352-1)