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Published Jun 1, 2021
Nashville Regional preview: Vanderbilt
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Chris Lee  •  TheDoreReport
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Here's a look at Vanderbilt as it enters the 2021 Nashville Regional.

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2021 record/RPI: 40-15 (2)

Coach: Tim Corbin (793-374-1, 19th year at VU)

Rank in polls: 3 (D1, BA, coaches)

Rank in conference: 2nd, Southeastern Conference Eastern Division (19-10)

Last NCAA tournament appearance: 2019 (won national title)

Home field: Hawkins Field (3,700)

Left: 310 (35-foot wall), alleys: 375, center: 400, right: 330

2021 recap

The last time a full season of baseball was played, the Commodores won the Southeastern Conference, the league tournament and a national title with a 59-12 team that's one of the best in college baseball history.

Well, this isn't that team; of the major role players from that group, only Kumar Rocker remains from that lineup or rotation.

Furthermore, the Commodores were beset by one injury after another. Potential weekend starting pitchers Michael Doolin and Sam Hliboki are done for the season, and the 'Dores had about 10 additional injuries or absences of significance at some point in the season..

Despite that, Vandy managed to finish a half-game back of Tennessee in the SEC East (the 'Dores lost a game to rain). The Commodores were fairly consistent, wining 11 of 14 weekend series (and never got swept) and all but one mid-week game.

Vandy slipped a bit at the end, losing its last road series, then, its last regular-season home game before heading to the SEC tournament, where it lost two of three. Still, Vandy's 19 wins against RPI top-50 teams tied for second in the country (all but one came against NCAA tournament teams).

The Commodores have it all: elite starting pitching, pitching depth, power, speed and defense up the middle. With almost all key players on the team besides Rocker lacking NCAA tournament experience, it remains to be seen how the 'Dores handle expectations as the No. 4 national seed. However, Vandy may start the regional as healthy as it's been in a few weeks, which should make a major difference in postseason play.

Vanderbilt batting order and top substitutes
SpotPlayer, pos (B), Avg/OBP/slg

1.

Enrique Bradfield Jr., CF (L), .365/.447/.442

Probably the fastest man in college baseball; stole 42 bases in 48 tries.

2.

Carter Young, SS (S), SS, .276/.354/.628

Elite fielder who also bashed team-high 15 HR.

3.

Dominic Keegan, 1B (R), .369/.439/.652

Hit 11 HR; hit much better outside of SEC play.

4.

Parker Noland, 3B (L) .264/.342/.443

Has started at 2B, 3B and 1B; whole-field hitter.

5.

Isaiah Thomas, RF (R), .331/.394/.646

Gifted athlete with huge power but struggles with plate discipline (52 K, 8 BB).

6.

C.J. Rodriguez, C (R) .260/.400/.390

Tremendous defender and a high-contact hitter (15 Ks, 146 ABs).

7.

Troy LaNeve, LF (L) .346/.393/.731

Late-season injuries earned him time; hit 5 HR in 52 ABs.

8.

Tate Kolwyck, 2B (L) /279/.354/.512

Hamate injury has hurt power; played SS in Young's absence.

9.

Spencer Jones, DH (L) .279/.337/.442

6-7 lefty has big power, but strike-zone judgment (31 Ks, 5 BB) must improve.

Res

Jack Bulger, LF/DH (R) .294/.388/.448

Held down a lineup spot until injuries hit; should DH vs. lefties.

Res

Jayson Gonzalez, 3B (R) .297/.404/.500

47 starts, but struggled down the stretch.

Res

Cooper Davis, OF (L) .248/.333/.294

Opening-day left-fielder had two significant injuries and never regained his feel for hitting.

Res

Max Romero Jr., C (L) .286/.417/.551

Big drop-off from Rodriquez defensively but has monster power.

The Commodores hit surprisingly well for a team with a bunch of first-timers, scoring 394 runs while finishing fifth of the league's 14 teams in runs in conference games (188). This came despite injuries or issues that caused six of the team's nine regular starters to miss time, and another (opening-day left fielder Cooper Davis) never regained after fouling a pitch off his face and breaking his nose in the season's first at-bat.

Enrique Bradfield Jr., the SEC Freshman of the Year, was a holy terror, walking 38 times to 31 strikeouts, taking extra bases where nobody else could and drawing God-knows-how-many pickoff throws. Bradfield's a threat to reach via bunt or hard liners in the gaps.

Absolutely nobody pegged Carter Young to lead the team in home runs, but the switch-hitter hit a team-leading 15 bombs after missing the last six games with a separated shoulder. Young should be back for the regional opener.

The Commodores have big power in middle-of-the-order juniors Isaiah Thomas and Dominic Keegan, who could both hear their names called in the top five rounds of this June's draft. Vandy added another power bat almost by accident when an injury to Thomas got Troy LaNeve in the lineup three weeks ago and the sophomore hasn't stopped hitting since.

Vandy has rotated Spencer Jones (lefty) and Jack Bulger (righty) at DH most of the year. Both were highly-rated players out of high school who passed up pro money to come to school; both have flashed a lot of pop but Bulger is the more polished hitter right now.

The rest of the lineup consists mostly of gap-to-gap hitters in Tate Kolwyck, C.J. Rodriguez and Parker Noland, though each has enough pop to leave the yard. Kolwyck was leading the team in home runs until a hamate injury suffered on March 21, but hasn't hit one since. Rodriguez is almost impossible to pitch to due to his ability to make contact with any pitch at any time and hit it anywhere on the field, but he slumped as the wear and tear of catching took its toll late in the year. Noland (who started all but one game) will hit the ball to the opposite field a lot but also tailed off down the stretch.

Vandy has elite defenders at catcher (Rodriguez), short (Young) and center (Bradfield Jr.) and perhaps even Kolwyck, too, who's been spectacular at times after returning from injury. The 'Dores defensive struggles have mostly come in left and at third (though they're better with Noland there) and sometimes at first, where Keegan has mostly been solid but occasionally struggles with the most routine of plays.

Vanderbilt rotation and key bullpen arms
RolePlayer (throws)

SP1

Kumar Rocker (R) 11-3, 2.86 ERA, 91.1 IP, 135 K, 31 BB

2019 CWS MVP won two elimination games that year.

SP2

Jack Leiter (R) 8-3, 2.28 ERA, 83 IP, 135 K, 36 BB

Five-pitch guy who's regained form of late.

SP3

Patrick Reilly (R) 4-2, 4.54 ERA, 46 K, 21 BB

Talented arm; shown inconsistency typical of a freshman.

SP4

Christian Little (R) 3-1, 5.02 ERA, 37.2 IP, 44 K, 16 BB

17-year-old dominated Ole Miss last week.

CL

Nick Maldonado (R) 1-2, 5 sv, 2.23 ERA, 42 Ks, 5 BB

Fearless closer can throw multiple-inning outings.

RP1

Chris McElvain (R) 4-1, 2 sv, 3.79 ERA, 43 Ks, 16 BB

Can either pitch long relief or in set-up role.

RP2

Luke Murphy (R) 2-1, 7 sv, 2.83 ERA, 46 K, 11 BB

Electric fastball-slider combo plays well in late-inning situations.

RP3

Hugh Fisher (L) 0-0, 11 IP, 13 K, 9 BB

Former first-round prospect is erratic but mostly un-hittable

RP4

Thomas Schultz (R) 4-2, 42 IP, 39 K, 18 BB

Third starter to begin season; pitched just twice in last month.

RP5

Nelson Berkwich (L) 1-0, 11.2 IP, 14 K, 3 BB

Deceptive freshman saw more action late in season.

RP6

Ethan Smith (R) 1-0, 2 sv, 3.09, 16 K, 3 BB

Last threw on April 3 (2.2 IP, 0 R, W).

RP7

Hunter Owen (L) 0-0, 15.2 IP, 17 K, 13 BB

Mid-90s fastball, but was more effective early in the season than late.

The Commodores start their rotation with two players in contention to go No. 1 overall in this year's MLB Draft in Rocker and Jack Leiter, add to that another potential regional starter in 17-year-old Christian Little (who may have also been in that top overall mix had he stayed in high school for his senior season) and also have Patrick Reilly, their Sunday starter who was good and sometimes great in two of his last three appearances.

There's end-gamers Luke Murphy and Nick Maldonado, who at times were the most un-hittable guys on the staff, lefty Hugh Fisher (who was getting mention as a first-rounder until an arm injury), Thomas Schultz (who was good enough to begin the year in the rotation) and dependable Chris McElvain, who repeatedly got the ball (and usually delivered) in key weekend spots.

And then there's Ethan Smith, who went 4-0 with a 3.27 ERA, 47 strikeouts and 17 walks in 2019 and is a wild card heading into this weekend.

So with all that talent, how did this team lose 15 games?

The answers can mostly be explained by youth and health.

Leiter was as dominant as one can imagine--that included the 17-strikeout no-hitter of South Carolina in his first SEC start--but the 100-plus pitch counts took their toll weeks later, when Leiter allowed eight of his 10 home runs in a three-game stretch between Tennessee, Mississippi State and Florida.

The trajectory of Rocker's season was similar. Georgia's three-home-run game off him was unsettling, as was Alabama's six-run performance against him on May 7. Then came the Arkansas game in the SEC tournament in which Rocker suddenly lost his control and exited after five runs and five free passes in 3 1/3 innings.

At the root of the struggles for each was usually a bad inning in which both struggled to command pitches and throw strikes. Still, the batting averages against each--.128 vs. Leiter, .165 against Rocker--tell quite a story.

And with Rocker--who looked bored at times in the regular season--having significantly elevated his game just when the NCAA tournament hit in 2019, and Leiter looking more like the early-season Leiter than the mid-season version his last three outings, there should be more reason for optimism than pessimism with both heading into the weekend.

Rocker's fastball sat 94-96 most of the year, and his slider (he got 19 strikeouts vs. Duke in the 2019 super regional with it) can be as dominant a pitch as you'll see in college. He's added a cutter and a change-up that have both worked for him at times.

Leiter's arsenal--both two- and four-seam fastballs, two breaking pitches, a change-up and a cutter--is impressive, and the fastball has frequently touched 97 and 98 on stadium guns. Leiter is impossible to handle because when he's throwing well as he can throw about any pitch in any count, but the inability to throw strikes or leave a flat fastball at the belt is what sinks him when it goes wrong.

Little looked as good as those two if you simply judged him on a terrific outing vs. Ole Miss last week. Like the others, the fastball often sits in the mid-90s, and his slider has been an out pitch at times. But Little is still young and getting used to college competition, and so it's hard to know if that was a sign of things to come for the rest of the year or a blip on an erratic growth curve.

Reilly's four-seam fastball has been terrific at times, and he's been good in three of his last four appearances. Like most freshman, it's about consistency and location as he gets beaten by walks or home runs (seven allowed in 37 2/3 innings).

Murphy has two pitches--a high-90s fastball and a slider-like breaking pitch--that are dominant more often that not, but troubles with control and location hurt him at times.

Maldonado, who a year ago was merely a control specialist with pedestrian stuff, was the team's biggest surprise. His fastball jumped to 93-94 and he dominated at times with his cutter. But Maldonado also waned down the stretch: He made 21 appearances, but his three home runs allowed all came over the last four.

Sophomores McElvain and Schultz who are each capable of throwing over 80 pitches if needed. McElvain isn't generally dominant, but he's rarely bad and is an ideal guy to hold a lead across multiple innings.

The team has a shortage of left-handers, but Fisher--a key arm in 2019--is almost impossible to hit because of a mid-90s fastball and a low-80s breaking pitch. He had a big role in 2019, but coach Tim Corbin seemed to trust Berkwich--a freshman with a low-90s fastball and a couple of secondary pitches--more late in the year. Fisher's probably a situational lefty, while Berkwich is more likely to get a full inning, and maybe two. Lefty Hunter Owen could see time in a blowout.

Smith had a big impact on the national title team and was expected to start on Sundays until an early-February move to closer. Smith failed a Covid-19 test just after his last appearance---a good one vs. LSU on April 3--and with Vanderbilt's Covid-19 requirements being more stringent than the NCAAs, the school held Smith out for weeks. That hurt his conditioning. When the junior tried to get that back, he over-did it with throwing and that set him back further.

Smith was on the roster for the SEC tournament but didn't play. He's capable of dominating for several innings with a fastball that sits 95-96 but it's hard to say what role he'll have in the NCAAs.