Here are three things we've learned, two questions and a prediction following Vanderbilt's 24-17 loss at Mississippi State.
Three observations
1. We're starting to see signs of hope for a future on offense.
Let me be clear: The Commodores still have a lot of issues on offense. They've turned it over six times in two weeks (five on Saturday) and generated 41 points in two weeks and both numbers have to improve.
But Saturday's game was a huge step in showing the team has some offensive capability. It was easy to dismiss last week's 421-yard offensive performance because Ole Miss's defense was abysmal, and the game was a blowout. But putting 478 yards on MSU--which still ranks fourth in the Southeastern Conference in total defense even after Saturday--made a statement.
Here are some things to note:
- Of VU's 11 offensive starters on Saturday, just two--right guard Connor Mignone and wide receiver Chris Pierce--are seniors.
- Vanderbilt got valuable reps for right tackle Bradley Ashmore and left guard Julian Hernandez on Saturday. Both played all 85 snaps and Ashmore was the team's fourth-highest-graded offensive player at 69.1 on Saturday. Both are freshman, as is Brayden Bapst, who played respectably at tackle in mop-up duty last week against Ole Miss.
- Running back Keyon Henry-Brooks is starting to look more like a legitimate SEC running back, and not just A Guy. Brooks had 213 yards from scrimmage Saturday on the heels of last week's 155.
- You need a dependable pass-catcher in this offense, and Cam Johnson is proving he can be that. Johnson has 24 catches for 213 yards over the last three weeks.
- Tight end Ben Bresnahan was quiet this week, but the sophomore still ranks third on the team with 17 catches.
- And, of course, there's quarterback Ken Seals, who had four turnovers Saturday but is completing 67.1% of his passes this year and has shown plenty of promise.
Is this a good offense now? No, and not even close. But are there signs it could be a respectable bunch in a year or two? Yes.
2. The Commodores are now last in the SEC in turnover margin.
Vanderbilt now ranks last in the league in net turnovers (minus-8) as well as turnover differential per game (minus-1.6).
It's an issue on both sides of the ball.
On offense, VU has turned it over 14 times. Only Mississippi State (14) has been picked more times than VU (which is tied at nine with Georgia and Ole Miss) and only Missouri and Kentucky (seven) have lost more fumbles that Vandy's five (MSU also has five).
On defense, VU's five fumble recoveries is tied for second with Tennessee and Ole Miss, one behind LSU. However, it has just one interception, tied with Missouri for league worst.
One big factor in this: VU gets its hands on balls but can't make plays. The Commodores have broken up 15 passes but snagged just one. Opponents have 16 break-ups and nine picks.
3. This is the school's longest losing streak in a decade.
The Commodores have lost six straight, dating back to last years's season-ending loss to Tennessee. That's the longest skid since VU lost its last seven to end the 2010 season, which was coach Robbie Caldwell's interim campaign.
The Commodores had a 10-game losing streak spanning the end of 2009 and the start of 2010; a 28-14 road win over Ole Miss on Sept. 18, 2010 snapped that skid.
If VU goes 0-10 this season, its 11-game skid would be the worst stretch since VU lost 11 between the end of 1997 and the start of 1998.
Vanderbilt has also lost nine of its last 10. It has a ways to go before reaching the depths of 1989-91, when Vanderbilt lost 20 of 21.
Two questions
1. What's the depth chart going to look like behind Keyon Henry-Brooks?
Henry-Brooks has established himself as the No. 1 tailback, but who backs him up?
Jamauri Wakefield didn't play last week and played one snap against MSU.
Ja'Veon Marlow remained suspended for the second-straight week.
Rocko Griffin was the backup against MSU, but hasn't been effective (21 carries, 42 yards).
2. What's going on at linebacker?
The biggest question is, "What's happening with Dimitri Moore?"
Moore barely came off the field in 2018 and 2019 and entered 2020 as an All-SEC candidate. But Moore missed the Texas A&M game and hasn't played more than 54 snaps in a game this season, according to Pro Football Focus. Moore did not start against MSU and played just 15 snaps, and has had just five combined tackles the last two weeks.
The other question would be, "Why can't Alston Orji find a role?" The junior, who was the highest-rated recruit on the roster, played 39 snaps in the opener against Texas A&M and has logged 37 snaps in the four games since.
The leader in linebacker snaps Saturday? True freshman Ethan Barr, who logged 35 snaps on Saturday and far and away graded as the team's best linebacker (78)
One explanation for dropping reps is that Vanderbilt played a lot of dime packages on Saturday against State's Air Raid offense, but Barr seeing the field more than Moore and Orji was hard to foresee.
One prediction
Amir Abdur-Rahman and Bresnahan will have a bigger role in the offense this week than last.
In another box score oddity from Saturday, I wouldn't have expected those two to account for only three of the team's 31 catches against MSU. (All those went to Abdur-Rahman).
Bresnahan had six catches and a score against Ole Miss, so I think that's an aberration. Abdur-Rahman, however, needs to assert himself more: He had three catches for 49 yards last game and lost a fumble after being shut out against Ole Miss.
The bottom line is that Vanderbilt needs big plays from each if it's going to win, and so it's not a hard call to believe they'll have a bigger impact against Kentucky.