The baseball 3-2-1, pre-Omaha edition

Here are three observations, two questions and a prediction as Vanderbilt prepares for the College World Series.

1. This team has proven it can take a punch.

The Commodores are generally thought to be the best team in Omaha, but lack of experience there compared to Arkansas and Mississippi State--both of whom have odds close to VU's to win the tournament--is perceived as a potential difference.

I won't argue that. But there are a number of things that suggest VU may be equipped to handle the pressure.

The obvious dealing with the Donny Everett tragedy aside--six of the 27 players who'll likely head to Omaha were there for that--this squad has had its share of elimination games and come out ahead often. It won the SEC Tournament, won regionals the last three years and just advanced from a super regional in which it had a 1-0 deficit.

This year presented a number of pressure or "rebound" scenarios, which the Commodores handled fairly well.

VU lost the conference season-opening Texas A&M series, thanks to a devastating blown lead late in Game 2, played poorly in Game 3, then came back to shut out Belmont at First Tennessee Park against an opponent and venue that have proven tricky recently. It then went on to pound Florida--the team that has, throughout coach Tim Corbin's tenure, given VU fits like no other--in a lopsided, three-game sweep.

VU nearly let a Game 3 loss to Tennessee bleed over into a mid-week game with Western Kentucky. The Commodores trailed 4-2 heading into the ninth, but got a pair of home runs and a 10th-inning score to take that one.

Then came a series at Georgia in which VU's bats failed miserably all weekend. The Commodores went to MTSU--a team and a venue where fans can't wait to face the Commodores--and pounded the Blue Raiders, 15-1.

VU was only 5-4 at that juncture of the conference season. It then took two of three from Arkansas the next weekend to improve to 7-5. The last one entailed giving up six runs in the last two innings to blow a Game 3 lead. Vanderbilt responded with a 7-1 mid-week trouncing of a good Indiana State team to start a 13-game winning streak.

From that point on, the Commodores went 16-2 in conference play to win the SEC, then, came back from a 9-1 deficit to win the conference tournament in a winner-take-all game.

Those were all impressive responses, but at no time was everything at stake like this weekend, after Duke's 18-5 pounding left VU one loss from its season ending. Vandy took a 1-0 lead into the eighth in Game 2 and hung on, while blowing out the Blue Devils in another winner-take-all contest.

It's not Omaha. You never know how a team will react to that until it's on that stage. But the last three years have in some way prepared the team for more adversity than that that, and it's hard to respond better than this team has all year.

2. Zach King has looked more like the freshman and sophomore King recently, and that could be significant.

Speaking of taking punches, junior lefty Zach King has taken a few this year but is starting to look stronger for it.

In King's two Sunday innings, he shut Duke down on one hit. Last week, King threw two perfect innings in the clincher over Indiana State. Both were blowouts when King entered.

But, it should be noted that the last time King pitched before that, it came in the Southeastern Conference Tournament, where he threw an inning and two-thirds while giving up three hits, three walks, three runs and a hit batsman.

But before that, King threw a scoreless inning in a tight spot in the SEC Tournament against Mississippi State.

And the outing before that, King threw two scoreless innings with two hits at Kentucky in what, at the time, with VU nursing a one-run lead, in the first game of a three-run series in which the Commodores were trying to win a conference title.

Before that came a 13-day gap in appearances as King struggled to regain confidence.

Summing that up, even with the bad outing, King has thrown 8 2/3 innings over those five games, given up six hits, three walks and a hit batsman and three runs (all earned) while striking out seven, all against quality competition.

In other words, King's recent results have been much like they were the first two years, when he was one of the most valued arms in VU's bullpen each year.

King can be exceptionally valuable in Omaha because he can start or be or a long reliever, giving 4-6 innings that way, or adding a key inning or two in a high-leverage spot late.

3. Baseball needs more Kumar Rockers.

I love baseball--always have and always will--at basically every level. Historically, I haven't had much for the "it's-too-long" criticisms. But it's hard to argue that games at the college and MLB levels often don't take longer than they should.

Much can be solved by cutting commercials. College baseball's done a good job here.

But there's a lot more to be done. Offensive conferences, mound conferences that take too long, taking time to get signals from the dugout to the pitchers, excessive pick-off moves and general gamesmanship--while they have not ruined the game for me--certainly subtract from attention span and general enjoyment.

And at a time where college baseball has a terrific product and expanding interest, these things are, to some degree, an impediment in growing and improving the game.

And then, there's Kumar Rocker, out there working faster than any pitcher I've ever seen. On the last batter of the ninth inning, Rocker took 12 seconds between the wind-up of his first pitch to the wind-up of the second, and the same to the next pitch. (That included the batter briefly stepping out of the box.) The batter fouled off the third pitch, and then swung and missed at the fourth to end the game.

The four-pitch sequence, from start of first wind-up to the last swing and miss, took 42 seconds. And keep in mind, this was to No. 3 hitter Matt Mervis, in a game where, though Rocker was mowing Duke down, VU was in an elimination game with a three-run lead.

To expect everyone to operate like Rocker is setting the bar too high. He's probably the most-gifted pitcher I've seen since I started covering college baseball in 2004. He makes things look easy that to even good pitchers, aren't. And this was Rocker operating on what was a special night, even for him, and adding to that, no one was on base at the time.

But boy, how great would baseball be if pitchers would just catch and throw the way Rocker does. It certainly would not hurt to create a more compelling product.

1. Will J.J. Bleday see a shift in Omaha? And if so, what will he do about it?

The odd thing about the four-outfielder, dare-you-to-pull look is that Bleday had shown the ability to hit to all fields this year. It's easy to ask Bleday to just bunt and take away the shift, but (I think credit goes to ESPN's Mike Rooney for sharing this story, but I'm not positive) a broadcaster made a point about the Cardinals' Matt Carpenter facing a similar issue. Carpenter's response was (paraphrasing), it's hard to bunt when you're pounded inside every single pitch. The point was made that Bleday is seeing something similar.

For as "off" as Bleday looked, he still went 4-for-13 with two walks--that's a .400 on-base mark--and two strikeouts this weekend. Last weekend, he was 3-for-11 with four walks--that's an even better .467 on-base mark--with three whiffs. While it has neutralized his power, a lineup full of plus-.400 OBP guys will score a ton of runs, even so.

Bleday saw fairly decent pitching the last two weeks, but should see an uptick of arms in Omaha. It'll be interesting to see how he's pitched.

2. When push comes to shove, is Vanderbilt's preferred lefty Jake Eder or Hugh Fisher?

Fisher has been VU's arm of choice in high-leverage situations this year. It's not a mystery why; his raw stuff, the best of which is a wipeout slider, is among the team's best. Eder also throws his fastball in the same mid-90s range as Fisher, but perhaps doesn't have that one jaw-dropping pitch that Fisher has.

And when pitching coach Scott Brown had both up and throwing in a key spot with Friday's game still in question, he went to Fisher, which is usually the case.

I can understand why. But all year, Eder's underlying numbers suggest he's the better pitcher. Fisher issues free passes 18 percent of the time, compared to Eder's 12. Fisher strikes out 28 percent of hitters, but Eder's not far behind at 26.

The big number: Fisher allows 1.73 runners per inning to Eder's 1.17. That can quickly catch up to you when things go wrong, which it did for Fisher on Friday: no innings, two hits, two hit batters. All four runners scored when A.J. Franklin couldn't put out the fire.

I like component ERA because it's a good predictor. Eder's component has been significantly lower than Fisher's all year, while his actual has been higher. Now, Eder's 2.88 ERA is lower than Fisher's 4.41, with the components (2.31 vs. 4.50) backing that up.

Stats don't explain everything. Sometimes, one pitcher has a pitch that's a better match for hitters than another does, even if the other has better stats. But they sure explain a lot.

It'll be interesting to see if Brown trusts results, or what's been an overriding preference for Fisher's slider, when it counts in Omaha.

Vanderbilt will win the College World Series--if it can get by Louisville and Reid Detmers in Game 1.

The tournament is all about how you handle who you face on the hill.

The bad news: VU faces Louisville sophomore Reid Detmers in Game 1. The lefty has some good numbers--a 2.85 ERA--supported by some great ones, like a 38 percent strikeout rate, an eight percent free pass rate, just 68 hits in 107 1/3 innings, and a 1.82 component ERA. At least one 2020 mock draft sees Detmers as a first-round arm.

The good news: Detmers isn't invincible. He had three bad starts this year, all coming on the road at Clemson (six innings, five earned runs), N.C. State (5 2/3, five) and Virginia (5 1/3, six). None of those lineups are as good as VU's. And the Cardinals' schedule on the whole was easier than VU's.

A lot depends on which Detmers--and maybe more so, which Drake Fellows--takes the hill on Sunday. But if Vandy can get by, it'll face a Mississippi State team not throwing Ethan Small, or an Auburn team it beat four times out of four, in Game 2. It's a spot where you have to like VU's chances to come through.

I think Vanderbilt's got the tougher side of the bracket. If it can come out ahead after Game 1, things aren't easy, but it certainly tilts the scale more in the Commodores' favor.