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Published Nov 15, 2021
The MyPerfectFranchise.net mailbag, Nov. 15, 2021
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Chris Lee  •  TheDoreReport
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AnnArborDore: What non-conference MBB games (before the SEC season) do expect to show us what kind of team we have & how do you expect us to perform against those teams?

For one, I thought the Texas State game might give us a tiny hint about where things were headed. I wasn't particularly impressed over the Alabama State performance--that's an awful team--but TSU is a team that won the Sun Belt tournament last year and could challenge this year. A loss would have been a bad sign, and a win of 8-10 points would have been about what I expected, and so a 19-point win exceeded that. It's not much to do on but it's all we have to go on for now.

Looking down the schedule, I see the road trip to SMU (Dec. 4), the home games with Loyola and Temple (Dec. 7 and 10) and the trip to Hawaii as being the best harbingers of what's ahead.

DoreKing: What do you think the ceiling is for the basketball team? Most likely result?

It's hard to say because I'd need to know whether the team has either of Liam Robbins or Rodney Chatman available, and so the healthy return of one (and especially both) would elevate expectations. And if the Commodores win several of those games listed above without that duo, and then get both back healthy for league play, expectations would deservedly go up a notch.

I said before the season that I thought with both healthy, this team could go 8-10 in the league and get to the NIT. I'll stick to that assumption under those conditions, however, I"m less confident it'll play out that way, especially with Robbins (you'll notice the timeline for his return has quickly gone from "ready for the opener" to "hope to have him for conference play" and I get a bad feeling when things change that quickly).

One other caveat: The league's pretty good. I wouldn't be shocked if any of Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama or Auburn made the Final Four. By season's end, Arkansas could be a Sweet 16 team. Florida's reloaded with transfers and just beat Florida State by 16 over the weekend, LSU beat the same Texas State team Vandy saw by 25 and won another game against a Division I team by 62 points. Mississippi State has started strong and some feel that's a top-25 team. Ole Miss has blown out two opponents and also beat Ohio State in a secret scrimmage.

And the bad news is that Vanderbilt's got 12 games against those teams, with seven being on the road. The point here is that the Commodores could get Robbins and Chatman someone healthy, be greatly improved and have a 6-12 league mark to show for it.

That's a long way of saying that my assumptions haven't really changed since the season starts, and those two are huge variables right now, and it's hard to know how to modify expectations until we know more.

Vandyguy20: At the end of the year, who will be the second leading scorer and which players will lead the team in Assists, Rebounds, and Turnovers.

Pippen's an easy call for assists and turnovers.

Rebounds is a tough call. Robbins aside, Jamaine Mann--the KenPom data (subscription required) suggests he's easily the team's best active rebounder--seems the best candidate but he's also fouled seven times in 27 minutes. With both being huge risks, I guess I'll go Jordan Wright just because I'm super confident that the playing time and so that's solely a call on volume.

DustyOrleans: Renderings are out: initial impressions? Do you think it’s a significant proof of their future commitment to athletics?

The shortest answer to this kind of question is to look at what's in front of you. I don't think you can ignore what's in front of you, which is that this goes light years beyond what the school has done before and that certainly says something.

A more nuanced answer: I still think the school has some internal obstacles (some self-inflicted, others that just come with the territory of being a small, private school) that also need fixing. And how those things are handled (or not handled) will tell us more.

Anyway, I shared my same-day reactions on Friday's podcast and I think that's worth a listen.