Here's our preseason edition of the 3-2-1 for baseball, in which we discuss three things we know, ask two questions and make a prediction.
Three things we know
1. Today is the funeral of former athletic director David Williams, without whom Vanderbilt baseball would not be where it is.
Today will be a tough day for Vanderbilt baseball coach Tim Corbin, who will be opening his season in Arizona, will assuredly be thinking of David Williams on the day of his funeral.
Without Williams, Corbin probably still isn't at Vanderbilt today.
Auburn--a much bigger program at the time than Vanderbilt--tried to woo Corbin away from Vanderbilt in 2004. Many presumed that Vanderbilt couldn't keep Corbin. I believe that was when Williams showed up at the airport to greet Corbin on his return from Auburn , something that always resonated with Corbin.
In 2007, LSU--then, and probably still now, the biggest name in college baseball--courted Corbin, who had legitimate concerns about whether he could replicate, at Vanderbilt, what he could do in Baton Rouge. By then, Williams helped get a clubhouse facility built next to the bullpen in left, and again worked to keep him happy at VU.
Later, Oregon--a school with resources like few others in college sports--presented Corbin with a challenge of building a program from the ground up. That had its own appeal, but by that time Corbin's roots had seemingly grown too deep in Nashville.
Since then, VU continued to invest in baseball, building the $12 million facility behind the left-field wall, and before that, adding seats, and eventually, a new scoreboard--to Hawkins Field. While Corbin did most of the heavy lifting, Williams usually helped behind the scenes.
It's fitting that, on the day Williams is laid to rest, Vanderbilt berths a new season as the No. 1 team in the country. Without Williams, it's fair to ask how much of this would have happened.
2. A number of veteran players have established wide ranges of outcomes over their careers. How they perform will go a long way towards VU's success in 2019.
Baseball America and D1 Baseball, among others, rank Vanderbilt as the preseason No. 1, a key reason being that the Commodores return so much veteran experience.
However there's a surprising amount of uncertainty with some of the veterans.
The biggest wild-card on the roster could be senior first baseman Julian Infante. This time a year ago, Infante was the first baseman on the preseason All-Southeastern Conference first team. Infante's OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) dropped from .905 to .549 a year ago, a gap of .356 points. Over the course of a full season, that's a difference of about 30-35 runs on the scoreboard, maybe more if Vanderbilt advances deep into the postseason.
Senior shortstop Ethan Paul's production has had its share of ranges, though that's probably had to do more with batted ball luck than anything. Paul's OPS last year was .788, but he's capable of posting a season of .900 or better, which he nearly did (.891) as a freshman.
On the hill, senior Patrick Raby could give Vanderbilt 105 2/3 innings of a 2.73 ERA, as he did two years ago. Or, he could give up 1.57 runners per inning, like he did last year, and get surpassed by a number of younger, talented arms.
And then there's lefty Jackson Gillis. Is this the year he sheds control issues and becomes the dominant end-game reliever many think he can be?
Vanderbilt should be plenty good even if none of these guys are outstanding. But think of the possibilities if one, or all of them, are.
3. This looks like the deepest 35-man roster that Corbin's had.
This may not be Corbin's most top-heavy pitching roster, but it's incredibly deep. As for the lineup, VU has some enviable issues. Every game, there's going to be a Cooper Davis or a Ty Duvall on the bench, or maybe even a regular like an Infante, a Stephen Scott or a Pat DeMarco who has to take an occasional day off for someone else to shake off the rust.
VU had to trim two Perfect Game top-200 recruits from its 2018 class (Cam McMillan, Luke Murphy) and another who just missed the list (Makenzie Stills, No. 211), not to mention Justin Willis and Michael Sandborn, just to get to 35. All five will redshirt and are expected to return,. That's a lot of talent that, health permitting, could play other places.
And that doesn't even include the attrition of players since last year--Aaron Brown, Garrett Blaylock, Tyler Solomon, etc.--who saw the writing on the wall and transferred out.
A deep roster guarantees nothing. There are diminishing returns as you get to the end of the roster. But that talent around sure provides a cushion in case of injury or missed time.
Two questions
1. Is Kumar Rocker ready for this?
On a roster full of talented pitchers with pro potential, Rocker's the best--and it's not even close. No who saw Rocker's outing against Oklahoma State would disagree. Rocker will be pitching in big spots in significant games soon, and perhaps as soon as a Sunday start.
But there are issues that come with that. Starting a scrimmage, and starting in the regular season on TV, or on the road in the SEC, are quite different things.
How will Rocker handle the nerves of starting, or playing on the road, the first time?
How will he react the first time when he doesn't hit his spots, or doesn't have his best stuff?
Or what about when his stuff's good" but he's tipping pitches or is the victim of stolen signs?
Even the great David Price went half his sophomore season getting pounded by the SEC. With confidence, Rocker's good enough to get anyone in college baseball out, right now. But will that confidence wane, and how prepared is he to handle it if it does?
2. How does playing time shape out at third?
VU has a few questions here and there with roles, but the biggest one is at third.
Harrison Ray is the presumed starter, but enters the weekend a little banged up.
Close behind is Jayson Gonzalez, last year's Opening Day starter. Gonzalez's contact and fielding struggles cost him the job last year. Tt sounds like the fielding has improved, but there are still some issues with the former. Gonzalez's bat is worth having in the lineup even if he strikes out 30 percent of the time, but can he do that?
Looming behind both is true freshman Justyn-Henry Malloy, who impressed the coaching staff with his bat and his glove, and might get a chance if his teammates stumble.
One prediction, plus a bonus!
Vanderbilt will finish 43-13 in the regular season, and 21-9 in the Southeastern Conference.
I'm guessing the Commodores lose a couple of SEC series (most likely losses: Florida, and either Arkansas or Auburn), sweep a couple, and go 2-1 in the rest. Out of conference, a one-day trip to Louisville will be tough, and the Commodores usually drop a few mid-week games (normally, to a local rival like Lipscomb, Belmont or MTSU).
If Vanderbilt can manage 21-9 in the regular season, that's usually enough to win the league.
My friend @VUHawkTalk issued a challenge above, so I'll bite here.
Friday's lineup and batting order against Virginia right-hander Griff McGarry:
1. Austin Martin, 2B (R)
2. Stephen Scott, LF (L)
3. J.J. Bleday, RF (L)
4. Philip Clarke, C (L)
5. Pat DeMarco, CF (R)
6. Julian Infante, 1B (R)
7. Ethan Paul, 2B (L)
8. Ty Duvall, DH (L)
9. Jayson Gonzalez, 3B (R)
P: Drake Fellows (this has already been announced)
Saturday's lineup and batting order against Fullerton lefty Timothy Josten:
1. Austin Martin, 2B (R)
2. Stephen Scott, C (L)
3. J.J. Bleday, RF (L)
4. Philip Clarke, DH (L)
5. Pat DeMarco, LF (R)
6. Julian Infante, 1B (R)
7. Ethan Paul, 2B (L)
8. Harrison Ray, 3B (R)
9. Cooper Davis, CF (L)
P: Patrick Raby (already announced)
Some thoughts on what I have above:
- VU hit Martin, Scott and Bleday, followed by Connor Kaiser, Clarke and DeMarco, in its last three games of last season. I presume the same batting order, taking out the departed Kaiser.
- I think that if Ray were 100 percent--and he may be--he'll start the opener at third. Or, Gonzalez may start Game One to give Ray another day of rest. That's my wild guess.
- There's a little bit of a buzz on Davis. Corbin made mention on Wednesday of center being "unsettled." My original version split the difference, with Davis playing DH instead of Ty Duvall.
- I don't have confidence with where Davis and Ray hit. Davis seems to be the prototypical leadoff hitter, but can you really bump Martin, who had a .458 on-base percentage last year? VU has also hinted of hitting Ray second, but I can't justify hitting him higher than seventh.