Vanderbilt will play the first game of their home-and-home series against Ole Miss on Thursday at 5 PM (moved from a 6:30 PM start time). This highly anticipated matchup brings two teams just outside the top 25 head-to-head for a game with legitimate postseason implications. Both teams will be looking to rebound after a disappointing loss in their last game. Vanderbilt got thoroughly beaten by a very good Kentucky team while Ole Miss lost by 2 to a Texas A&M team that is not thought to be very talented. Before this loss the Rebels had been ranked number 25 in the AP Poll.
This matchup is about as dead even as one can get, with Vanderbilt being given only a 51% chance to win by ESPN’s matchup predictor. If you’re going by votes received, Vanderbilt is the 26th team in the AP Poll and Ole Miss is 28th.
What to know about Ole Miss
The Rebels are a talented, athletic squad who hang their hat on aggressive defense and scrappy play. While not a team that will beat you in a shootout, Ole Miss plays stifling man-to-man defense and will make a team work for every bucket against them. In their last 10 games, including four against P4 competition, opponents are only averaging 50 points per game against them. Against P4 competition on the year Ole Miss is only giving up 63 points per game.
On the offensive side of things, though, Ole Miss is somewhat less scary. The Rebs are shooting 45% from the floor and 30% from 3 and lead a very balanced approach. They are led in scoring by freshman guard Sira Thienou who is averaging 12 points per game. Not far behind her are Kennedy Todd-Williams, Madison Scott, and Starr Jacobs, averaging 11.5, 10.9, and 10.4 points per game, respectively. While there is no “star” player for Ole Miss, there are almost no shortcomings in their starting lineup. All of their starters are capable scorers and play their roles extremely well. Where they suffer, however, is their depth or lack thereof. Only one player is averaging more than 10 minutes off the bench for Ole Miss and that is guard KK Deans. Deans is a microwave scorer and in contention for SEC 6th Woman of the year, she can come in and light up just about any game. Beyond that, though, there are a few forwards who average 4-5 minutes per game.
Keys to the Game
A key factor in this matchup will be the fact that neither team has elite size. Both Vanderbilt and Ole Miss’s tallest starting player is 6’2 with all other players at 6’ or below. This will be one of the few SEC matchups of the year where neither team is undersized compared to the other. Both Vanderbilt and Ole Miss play a physical style that typically leads to them dominating similar/undersized teams on the boards and in the paint. In this game more than most, whoever is able to out-physical the other team is likely to win.
Next, which team will mentally bounce back better? Both squads had reason to be very disappointed with their previous results, albeit for different reasons, and will be looking to bounce back this game. Not only this, but both teams likely view this game as a must-win while fighting for seeding in both the SEC and NCAA tournaments. Last year the physical play of these two teams resulted in a tight game that got testy multiple times. Each team finding their mental toughness and keeping their heads on straight will be crucial.
Finally, it is beyond time for a 3rd scoring option to reveal itself for Vanderbilt. Coming into the year, Iyanna Moore was supposed to be the number 1 or 1B scoring option for this team. In 14 games she is averaging 12 points but on 36% shooting from the field. That won’t cut it. Kentucky made it very clear that their strategy was to shut Khamil Pierre and Mikayla Blakes down and make someone else beat them. While Pierre and Blakes were still able to put up solid numbers (on lower than usual efficiency), Moore, Jane Nwaba, and Madison Greene all struggled mightily and were unable to capitalize on the opportunities given to them. Ole Miss’s defense is much more aggressive and, to this point, has been better than Kentucky’s. If nobody is able to take some of the load off of Blakes’ and Pierre’s shoulders, it’s very unlikely that Vanderbilt will win the game.
As an important sidenote, this will be the first time Vanderbilt has faced an imposing away atmosphere this year. On top of already having respectable fan turnout, tickets to this game are free for all Ole Miss fans and they are given a $10 concession voucher upon entry. Expect the Pavillion to be packed full of rowdy fans. This will make an already tough game just that much harder for Vanderbilt.
