As we are now exactly 4 weeks away from Vanderbilt Baseball’s opening day, The Dore Report will be providing multiple articles with detailed breakdowns of the Vandyboys roster. Previews covering starting pitching, relief pitching, infield players, and outfield players will come out weekly. Today’s preview will cover the ‘Dores starting pitching.

A general note for pitching previews, there will only be 4 starting pitchers by the end of the season, but there will be more included in this article due to the uncertainty of who will be starting midweeks as well as fall ball performances.

Vanderbilt has a clear cut top 3 pitchers for the 2025 season, making the weekend rotation relatively easy to figure out. JD Thompson, Ethan McElvain, and Cody Bowker are all highly touted arms who had strong performances in 2024 and were elite in the Cape Cod League last summer. The group is highly talented but, aside from Thompson, largely unproven, whether that be due to a lack of experience or having yet to face SEC competition.

The likely Friday starter is JD Thompson. One of the breakout stars for Vandy in the 2024 season, Thompson emerged as Vanderbilt’s best and most consistent pitcher last year. The lefty boasted a 2.94 ERA over 11 starts (a sub-3 ERA is a rarity in today’s day and age) before a disastrous outing against Coastal Carolina which inflated his ERA to 4.15. That performance was so anomalous and Thompson had so many strong showings against some of the best teams in the country that I am willing to write it off as a one-off occurrence. He followed this up with a strong performance in the Cape Cod League where he recorded a 1.93 ERA over 14 innings pitched.

Thompson has a strong 3 pitch mix that he works extremely well to make up for a lack of plus stuff. While not overpowering, Thompson has a great fastball that sits around 90-91 and induces a 35% whiff rate along with a strong changeup and slider. Maybe most importantly, Thompson has the perfect disposition for a starting SEC pitcher. It felt as if every time Vanderbilt was in a must-win game they would turn to Thompson and he would produce. He had marquee performances against Tennessee, Mississippi State, and Kentucky and it could easily be argued that he saved Vanderbilt’s 18 year tournament streak. If Thompson is able to grow on his very strong sophomore season, Vandy will have a true Friday ace which they have been sorely missing since Kumar Rocker.

Ethan McElvain figures to be the Saturday starter for the Vandyboys. McElvain came in last year as arguably the most hyped pitcher to make it to campus since Rocker/Leiter. That only grew after a fall ball performance against Wake Forest which left scouts saying he has the potential to be the first overall pick in the 2027 MLB draft. McElvain has some high-octane stuff with a fastball in the mid-90s and a strong slider. He has a developing sweeper and changeup last we saw.

After all this hype McElvain had a rocky start to his freshman year before rounding into form in SEC play (before a back injury caused him to miss the second half of conference play). He recorded a 3.24 ERA over 25 innings pitched including standout performances against LSU, Valparaiso, and Belmont. Over the summer McElvain pitched for Team USA and in the Cape Cod League. McEvlain only pitched one inning for team USA, giving up 2 runs, but bounced back in the Cape where he had a 0.77 ERA. He recently was ranked the 24th best sophomore in college baseball by Perfect Game. McElvain certainly has the talent to be a great weekend starter but he needs to be much more consistent than last year and improve his strike throwing significantly. If he can take another step, Vanderbilt will have a very strong duo of weekend starters who will help them compete against anyone in the SEC, but that is a very big if. If he is unable to take that next step, Vandy will be left in an extremely tough spot

The Sunday starter is most likely going to be right hand pitcher Cody Bowker. Bowker comes to Vanderbilt after two strong seasons at Georgetown where he posted a 2.57 ERA as a reliever his freshman year and 3.0 ERA as a starter his sophomore season. He was a top 75 transfer and chose Vanderbilt over Tennessee in the portal. Bowker upped the competition he was going against in the Cape Cod League where he posted a 3.28 ERA over 32 IP. He has a 3 pitch mix with a fastball that sits around 90-91 along with a very strong changeup and solid curveball. What makes him particularly difficult to go against is his release. He has a very funky motion that brings him close to the ground, far from the mound, and makes it look like the ball explodes out of his hand.

Bowker is ultimately an unknown as he has never faced SEC level competition. However, he looked like Vanderbilt’s best pitcher in the fall while going against Vanderbilt and Tennessee Tech’s lineups. Strong performances in the Cape and in fall ball, as well as previous experience as a weekend starter, make him the clear pick for the final weekend rotation spot. That being said, Bowker will have to prove himself on the SEC stage. It has been all too common that an elite pitcher from lower levels of competition transfers to the SEC and flops in conference play. Bowker has the talent to avoid this, but having the ability to perform well and actually doing so are two very different things.

The Vandy fans and coaching staff will also have to pray that none of these three get injured, as while the bullpen and pitching depth is no longer quite as scary as last year, there is a steep dropoff between these 3 and the next potential starters.

Just as most years, we do not know who will be the midweek starter, and there is likely to be a rotation throughout the year. This will touch on a few of the names who would make sense to fulfill that role.

The first potential starter is Luke Guth. After a very strong debut against MTSU Guth moved into a relief position in SEC play and struggled. Guth finished the season with a 5.4 ERA and a 1-2 record. Guth has the stuff to be great with a fastball that sits around 93-94, a wicked curveball, and a solid changeup but he struggled mightily with his control and command. He walked 9 batters in 18.1 IP and had a bad habit of throwing a meatball when he got deep into counts (we remember what happened against Christian Moore in the SEC tournament). In the Cape he started 5 games but also struggled, finishing with a 6.56 ERA.

What makes him a potential starter is the fact that he has such good stuff, is projectable, and that Tim Corbin explicitly stated last year that he is viewed as a future starter by the staff. Guth’s issue coming into Vanderbilt was that he did not have the arm strength to keep up his velocity and command beyond an inning or two, something that got better throughout his first year. Another year in the weight room and with Scott Brown will likely greatly improve his control, command, and stamina. We’ve seen many pitchers take a massive leap between their years under Scott Brown (JD Thompson and Bryce Cunningham being the most recent examples), if Guth can take a jump of his own and fix some of his issues there is no reason he cannot be a strong starter.

Another name to look out for is Connor Fennell, one of two transfers who followed Jason King from Dayton to Vandy. He was a top 300 transfer in the portal. As a freshman the righty pitched 74 innings and recorded a 4.74 ERA for the Flyers. Fennell is not your typical SEC pitcher, he has a fastball that sits between 86-88 and relies heavily on his offspeed pitches. Fennell has stated that he is working to increase his velocity, though. Fennell’s strongest traits are his control and command. He only walked 13 batters in his 74 innings and a 1.17 WHIP last year. If he could improve his velocity while maintaining his strong suits, Fennell could be a very valuable asset. Given that he already has experience starting, and is familiar with many of the mid-majors Vanderbilt will be playing this year, he could be a natural fit as the midweek starter.

The next option is Hudson Barton. Barton is a freshman who was a late riser as a senior from Franklin, TN. While initially unknown, a strong fastball that sits at 95-96 along with a true 4 pitch mix caused him to get some legit draft buzz. Vanderbilt was able to get him to campus, though, and he impressed in fall ball. Barton started several games in both the David Williams Classic and scrimmages and delivered strong performances in each one. His fastball lives up to the hype and he showed solid command, although his offspeed pitches will need development. Barton is a very high ceiling, high floor arm who would do well to gain some starting experience this year. If he does not start, look out for Barton, he could be a very high level pitcher soon and will likely play a significant role this season.

Finally, based upon fall ball, true freshman Matthew Shorey could be a solid option as a midweek starter. Shorey is arguably the most unknown out of all 3 of these options, as he was a relatively low-rated arm out of Franklin Road Academy, not even rated in the top 500 high school recruits. Shorey, however, was one of the standout players of fall ball. Shorey started several scrimmages, showing a strong fastball around 93-94, good offspeed pitches, and solid strike-throwing abilities. The increase in his velocity is a notable development, as in high school Shorey’s fastball topped out at 90 and, while effective, it was not a dominant pitch. When Shorey has everything going, he’s an extremely strong option, however his current issue is stamina. In multiple scrimmages Shorey would start out extremely strong but his stuff would fade in his 3rd and 4th innings of work. While the staff clearly wanted to get him used to starting, this lack of stamina makes me wonder if he would be better suited for a relief role for this season. Regardless, the staff clearly thinks of Shorey as a major contributor with starting potential, so it would not surprise me if he were to be given the opportunity to start midweek games.

While this list hits on several likely options, there is the possibility that the midweek starter is not on it. The remaining options will be hit on in next week’s rundown of relief pitching.

Vanderbilt’s starting pitching group represents a common theme with this team. They are a group with sky-high potential but are ultimately unproven and unknown. It is not hyperbolic to say that the progression of their young pitchers and presumed starters may make or break this season. There is a reason why Scott Brown is one of the most respected coaches in baseball, he has had myriad success stories in the past, but this season needs his group to take several steps up.