Here's what you need to know when Vanderbilt and Northern Illinois kick off their football game at 11 Central on Saturday.
All grades are courtesy of Pro Football Focus (PFF.com).
When Vanderbilt runs
Vanderbilt finally got RB KeShawn Vaughn (282 yards, 5.0 ypc, 3 TD) on track last week against LSU, as Vaughn busted two runs of over 40 yards. Now, the Commodores could have their best run-blocker back in LT Devin Cochran, who hasn't played this year. RT Tyler Steen (run-blocking grade of 74) and RG Cole Clemens (76) have scored as VU's two-best run blockers for 2019.
NIU has two big run-stoppers in 310-pound DL Jack Heflin (run-stopping grade of 91) and 290-pound DL Weston Kramer (87). OLB Antonio Jones-Davis (82) has also grades well. Jones-Davis is tied with OLB Jordan Cole (71) for the team lead with 16 tackles.
VU averages 4.7 yards per rush, taking out sacks, while NIU gives up 5.0 per carry adjusting for the same.
When Vanderbilt throws
QB Riley Neal has thrown for 669 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions in going most of the way for Vanderbilt. However, Neal's not been efficient; adjusting for sacks, VU is averaging 5.7 yards per drop-back. WR Kalija Lipscomb (16 catches, 174 yards, 1 TD) has been his top target. VU has to get All-America TE Jared Pinkney (9-119-0) more involved, and WR Cam Johnson (7-99-1) has shown promise.
The Huskies have generated just one sack in 843 pass attempts, and are giving up 8.3 yards per throw. CBJalen McKie (71 in coverage) has been good, but the rest of the secondary, including CB Devin Haney (42), S Mykelti Williams (58) and S Trayshon Foster (56) has been shaky. McKie leads NIU in pass break-ups with three, and has its only pick.
When Northern Illinois runs
Northern Illinois, which averages a sack-adjusted 3.6 yards per carry, is led by RB Tre Harbison (162, 4.0, 0), a Virginia transfer and former VU recruiting target. Backup RB Jordan Nettles (82, 3.9, 0) also gets a lot of work. Harbison led NIU with 1,034 rushing yards last season.
According to PFF, much of the blame with the running game lies with the offensive line; C Christopher Perez Jr. (62) and RG Nathan Veloz (61) grade as the best run blockers.
The Commodores allow a sack-adjusted 6.1 yards per carry. VU's best run defender in its front seen is OLB Kenny Hebert (72), who ranks tied for fourth with 13 tackles, with DL Dayo Odeyingbo (68, 9 tackles) next. Those two are tied with the team lead with three stops for loss.
When Northern Illinois throws
QB Ross Bowers (776 yards, 3 TD, 3 int.) averages 7.5 yards per throw, and has three frequent targets in TE Daniel Crawford (11-195-0), WR Tyrice Richie (11-175-2) and WR Spencer Tears (9-141-1). Opponents have racked up nine sacks in three games. RT Jordan Steckler (87), a preseason second-team All-Mid-American Conference pick, is the best pass protector, while starting LT Andrew Starr (33) has struggled.
VU's pass defense has allowed 9.6 yards per attempt, which ranks 128th of the 130 FBS teams. Among secondary starters, S Dashaun Jerkins and CB Cam Watkins (59 each) gets the best coverage grades, though freshman reserve CB Jaylen Mahoney (76) and CB Randall Haynie (79) could start seeing more time if that doesn't change. Odeyingbo (77) and OLB Andre Mintze (75) grade as VU's best pass-rushing threats.
Keys to the game
1. Special teams play.
In what probably won't be a high-scoring affair, each team has to take advantage of its opportunities. VU K Ryley Guay has been great, but an apparent ankle injury suffered against LSU threatens his availability this week. In that case, VU would turn to K Javan Rice, who scored his first college point last week in relief of Guay. Rice came to VU as a scholarship kicker but has yet to prove he can make a significant impact.
Two weeks ago, NIU blocked two field goals and a PAT against Nebraska, including two blocks by McKie. The Commodores gave up a punt-block TD last week.
However, it was a circus on the other side, too, as the Huskers blocked two NIU kicks in the first half. It was bad enough that NIU twice left Bowers in to punt from the shotgun rather than risk longer snaps.
Both teams have reason to be concerned, but between NIU's ability to block kicks and the potential of an unproven kicker for VU, this could provide some nervous moments for Commodore fans.
2. Can VU stop the pass?
Coach Derek Mason's teams have always done well at stopping non-FBS teams in the run. With NIU having problems there--and VU shutting Purdue down two weeks ago--it probably makes more sense for NIU to attack Vandy through the air.
3. How much will KeShawn Vaughn produce?
Vaughn--rightfully--seems to be the Commodore teams are most concerned with. Vaughn flashed the big-play ability he showed most of last year with two long runs. NIU probably isn't as fast defensively as LSU and Georgia, which could increase the possibility that Vaughn can break a big run if he can get into the secondary.
Of course, Vaughn will also have to stay healthy. The senior hasn't come out of a game with injury yet this season, but missed a full game (and most of two others) a season ago for that reason.
Game day info
Kickoff: 11 Central
Location: Vanderbilt Stadium (40,350)
TV: SEC Network
Weather for Saturday: High of 96, low of 72
The line: VU -6.5, over-under of 54.5 (implied final score: VU 30.5, NIU 24)