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Published Oct 16, 2023
Vanderbilt's layered quarterback decision looms over bye week
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Joey Dwyer  •  VandySports
Staff Writer
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@joey_dwy

A bye week that should be one that comes with some relaxation and relief also comes with a decision that could change the trajectory of Vanderbilt's final four games and perhaps more than that.

As Vanderbilt's opening day starting quarterback AJ Swann works back to full health it feels like time for Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea to commit to a quarterback.

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In past weeks, Lea could put the decision off by deferring to Swann's health. That doesn't seem to be the case moving forward, though.

Vanderbilt has to find out who its guy is moving forward.

It has to make that move with conviction, too. This can't be a revolving door.

So will it be Vanderbilt's old steady hand in Ken Seals or will it be its young gunslinger in AJ Swann?

Lea didn't commit to a starter after Saturday's 37-20 loss to Georgia but did comment that he and his staff will "reassess" the situation at quarterback during the bye.

After three starts in which Seals threw for six touchdowns, just two interceptions and an average of 246.67 yards per game, it feels as if the senior quarterback may have forced Lea's hand.

It isn't that simple, though. What about Vanderbilt's young gunslinger?

Swann has largely been outperformed by Seals but represents a ceiling and potential to be the starter for years to come that Seals doesn't seem to despite still having a few years of eligibility remaining.

It feels like Seals may give the Commodores a better chance to win one or two of the next four games, though. At least based on the performance levels shown through eight games.

Vanderbilt seems to know what it has in Seals. The veteran quarterback will manage the game, distribute the ball to Vanderbilt's playmakers, feels pressure well and won't turn it over much. There's tremendous value in that, steadiness isn't something that should be taken for granted.

There's also the potential for Swann to have value beyond that, though.

If all goes right, Swann feels like a potential difference maker in a way that few other players on Vanderbilt's roster can be. Perhaps if Swann takes a positive step, he could be the type of quarterback that can keep Vanderbilt shootouts and games with Southeastern Conference opponents.

That's not to say that there isn't reason for concern with the sophomore's decision making and inconsistency. There’s plenty of that.

What Vanderbilt really has to figure out is how concerned it should be with that long term and how fixable it is. Lea commented before Vanderbilt's matchup with Georgia that Swann's elbow contusion did have an impact on his performance. It feels as if his youth did, as well.

Vanderbilt has to figure out whether the bad habits that Swann seemed to develop in games are part of his growth process or whether that’s who he is as a quarterback.

Perhaps a few weeks to watch the action from the sideline and get healthy was enough to turn the tide a bit for Swann. Whether that's blind optimism or a scenario worth relying on is up to Lea's discernment, though.

It also feels like Vanderbilt has to weigh some outcomes beyond the next four games. A look at Swann for those four games, two of which being in road environments, could give a nice pulse as to whether the sophomore can be the guy beyond 2023.

If Swann doesn't look to be, Lea will have time to evaluate his other options. At that point he'll at least have an answer, though. If Lea turns to Seals for Vanderbilt's final four games he may not get the answer he's searching for about Swann.

Seals having more eligibility remaining also doesn't allow the possibility of him returning to be ruled out. Perhaps with a strong final four games and the decision to return, Seals could be Vanderbilt's starter next season.

It feels as if Vanderbilt would be smart to make a firm decision coming out of the bye on what direction it'll go the rest of the season at quarterback. What that decision is feels like a layered one, though.