Vandy will face its toughest test this year as they take on the #2 ranked Arkansas Razorbacks this weekend at Hawkins field.
Both Vanderbilt and Arkansas swept their last series, against Texas A&M and South Carolina, respectively. Vanderbilt moved to 19-5 (4-2 SEC) and up 8 spots to number 14 in the rankings while Arkansas is 23-3 (5-1 SEC) and went from 4 to 2 in the most recent polls.
Despite their extremely strong play to begin the year, Arkansas lost their midweek game 14-13 to Missouri State.
Analysis
So far Arkansas has been arguably the best team in all of college baseball, possessing an elite pitching staff while complimenting it with an offense that, after a slow start, has turned out to be one of the best in the country.
While Arkansas’ starting pitching is not quite as statistically good as Texas A&M’s, they are still one of the premier rotations in the country. Zach Root, transfer from ECU, is their Friday night starter and has a 4.02 ERA and has struck out 46 batters in just 31.1 IP. Their Sunday night pitcher is Ohio State transfer Landon Biedelschies who has a 3.76 ERA. He is more of a contact pitcher than a guy who will blow stuff by you, as he only has 25 Ks in 26.1 IP, but he is great at inducing weak contact and getting easy, efficient outs. Gabe Gaeckle has been their Saturday starter thus far. After an outstanding freshman season that saw him become Arkansas’ closer while recording a 2.32 ERA and being selected to the all-SEC freshman team as well as a unanimous 1st team Freshman All-American. He has struggled this season, though, as he has a 6.57 ERA and is walking a very bad 5.5 batters per 9 innings so far.
The Arkansas bullpen is very strong, too. Aiden Jiminez, Parker Coil, and Dylan Carter all have ERAs under 2.5 and have all pitched 12.0 innings or more. Other often-used bullpen arms are Ben Bybee, Will McEntire, and Tate McGuire, all of whom have ERAs just under 4.0.
Interestingly, after very strong non-conference performances, the Arkansas starting pitchers have really struggled to begin SEC play. In SEC play alone, Zach Root has an 8.1 ERA and has given up 16 hits in 10 innings, Gabe Gaeckle has a 7.94 ERA while walking an absurd 9.5 batters per 9 innings, and Biedelschies has a 7.36 ERA and has only struck out 5 batters in 2 appearances. Their bullpen, on the other hand, has not shown the same regression. In fact, their most often used pen arms actually have improved their statistics in SEC play so far. Vandy will have to jump on Arkansas’ starting pitching if they want to have any hope of succeeding in SEC play.
The offense is another story entirely. The last few years Dave Van Horn’s squad was built almost exclusively around pitching with an offense that could simply produce just enough to win them a lot of games. This is not the case at all this year. Arkansas brings one of the best offenses in the country to Nashville, one that currently ranks at or near the top of the SEC in almost every statistical category. Relative to the rest of the SEC, Arkansas has scored the 4th most runs, has the second highest batting average at .334, the third highest slugging percentage at .602, and the third most home runs at 57. For reference, Vandy’s average is at .284, the ‘Dores’ slugging percentage is .443, and they have only hit 25 home runs. It’s safe to say that the offenses present a statistical mismatch of significant proportions.
Arkansas is led by the Aloy brothers, Kuhio and Wehiwa, who transferred from BYU and Sacramento State, respectively. Kuhio is hitting .404/.505/.764 with 8 home runs and 8 doubles while Wehiwa is slashing .383/.472/.785 with 11 doubles and 10 home runs thus far. Those two are superstars in the truest sense of the word. Behind them are Charles Dalvan, who is hitting .414 and has as many homers as he has strikeouts (7 of each), Logan Maxwell, and Brent Iredale. Maxwell’s batting average is .380 and he has 6 home runs while Iredale’s is at .351 with 9 home runs. Of note for Vandy fans, transfer Cam Kozeal has found a home at 1st base for Arkansas and is hitting .372 after being in and out of the lineup to start the year.
Predictions
As those consecutive massive lists of extremely impressive stats should impress upon everyone, Arkansas is LEGIT. They are completely deserving of their #2 ranking and this is without question a team that should be in Omaha at the end of the year. Frankly, this is the first time this year where Vandy will almost certainly be at a sizable talent disadvantage and I think the result of this series will likely reflect this. If Vandy is to hope to pull out a win in the series, the pitching staff will have to put together their best performance of the season while the offense jumps on just about every mistake that the extremely talented but recently inconsistent starting pitchers make.
This paints a fairly bleak picture of Vandy’s chances this series but I actually do see a world in which they can win. Vandy’s pitching staff, statistically speaking, has actually been a true step above Arkansas’ this year despite not having a single guy as highly thought of as any of Arkansas’ 3 starters. Arkansas also has a propensity to strike out as along with their increase in power there has also been an increase in the swing-and-miss in their lineup. I could see a world where JD Thompson or Cody Bowker have great games along with one or two of Hawks, Miller, or Green and they limit the Arkansas offense to a manageable number of runs. It should also be noticed that Vandy at home versus Vandy away are two completely different teams. However, or the offense to produce enough to win RJ Austin HAS to get out of his slump (he is batting .160 in conference play) and there needs to be production from the bottom of the lineup (Holcomb and Mancini are 1st and 2nd on the team for SEC batting average, similar production has to continue for them)
Ultimately, I think that the talent disparity between the two teams is enough that Arkansas takes the series 2-1. I do think Vandy will take a game, as Arkansas’ pitching has been inconsistent enough that I wouldn’t be shocked if they get down big early in a game and are not able to fight their way back in. If Vandy is able to pull out a series win, though, this will force everyone to reconsider the ceiling for this team.
