Missouri @ Vanderbilt Preview
When: Saturday, March 1, 5:00 pm CST
Where: Memorial Gymnasium *WHITE OUT*
TV/Streaming: SECN/ESPN App
Radio: 102.5 FM Locally SiriusXM 382 for Vandy Broadcast
Rankings - AP: Missouri #14, Vanderbilt Unranked
Kenpom: Missouri 11, Vanderbilt 39
NET: Missouri 12, Vanderbilt 41
Bracketmatrix: Missouri 5, Vanderbilt 10
Spread: Missouri -2.5, Vandy ML +130, O/U 153.5
How We Got Here
The last time the Commodores saw the Tigers was January 11, in a game where Vanderbilt didn’t score in the final two minutes, resulting in a 75-66 loss in Columbia. Since that game, Missouri has gone 8-4, including wins over Alabama, Florida, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State. The Tigers are much more daunting at home than on the road, with a 3-5 record away from Columbia. Luckily for Commodore fans, this game is not in Missouri but in Nashville, where Vanderbilt has played their best basketball this season.
Missouri has already locked up its NCAA Tournament berth and is now playing for a better seed. Tigers fans got to experience a similar feeling that Vandy fans felt not too long ago when they were winless in the conference last season, but this team has completely turned it around this year. The three-headed monster of Caleb Gill, Mark Mitchell, and Tamar Bates lead the Tiger offense, all of which average 13 points per game.
After a grit-it-out game Saturday at home against Ole Miss, the Commodores faced on paper one of the most demanding games on their schedule, going to College Station to play the Aggies. Coming off two straight losses, many (including me) didn’t expect the performance the Commodores would put on. Despite some shady officiating and physical play of the Aggies, Tyler Nickel knocked down 7 three balls on the way to the signature road win Mark Byington needed in his first year to get ‘over the hump’ and into the tournament. From the accounts of most “experts,” the Commodores should be a virtual lock to make the tournament, but winning a couple more on the way will only help our seeding.
What to Expect
I can sum this up in one word: shooting. This Missouri team knows how to shoot basketball and does it, as does anyone in the country. The Tigers rank 8th nationally in points per game, 25th in 2pt%, 34th in 3pt%, and 15th in free throw%. If you watched the first matchup against Missouri, the Tigers shot 49% from the field, including 10 3-pointers. Unlike what Vandy fans saw in Texas A&M on Wednesday night, this Missouri team likes to run and run a lot.
Expect the Tigers to get up and down the court and be able to score most of the time. The Tigers have struggled this year defensively. Missouri is 249th in points allowed, as well as being the 23rd-ranked defense against offensive rebounds. To win this game, the Tigers must make first shots and not let Vandy dominate the boards on the offensive end.
After avoiding a last-minute collapse and getting out of College Station with a win, the Commodores are firmly on the right side of the bubble and playing good basketball. The first half for Vanderbilt is where they are at their best, and I will submit a petition to the NCAA to make tournament games in just 15 minutes. To continue to play well, the ‘Dores will have to shoot as well as they did in College Station (i.e., more threes from Tyler Nickel). When this team shoots this well and can play physically (*cough cough*), it is a tough team to stop. For Vanderbilt to win and have a massive dance party on the court (after 1 minute, of course), defensive intensity and rebounding will put this game away if they can make shots.
Chef Miller’s Prediction
82-76 ‘DORES
