When
Friday, March 21
Roughly 2:30pm CST
25 min after game 1 of the session
Where
Rocket Arena
TV/Streaming
TruTV/NCAA March Madness App
Radio
102.5 FM Locally
SiriusXM 202 for Vandy Broadcast
Rankings
AP: Both Unranked
Kenpom: St Mary’s 22, Vanderbilt 49
NET: St Mary’s 21, Vanderbilt 48
NCAA Seed: St Mary’s 7, Vanderbilt 10
Spread
St Mary’s -4.5
Over/Under 136.5
Vandy ML +158
How We Got Here
The St. Mary’s Gaels enter the NCAA Tournament as a 7 seed after finishing runner-up to Gonzaga in the WCC tournament. Coming in with a record of 28-5, this team has proven they know how to win. With Power 5 (Big East included) wins over Nebraska, USC, and Utah, the Gaels have put together a phenomenal resume by playing fundamental basketball. The closest team the Commodores have seen to this team is Drake in the non-conference, another mid-major that plays tough fundamental basketball. With the eighth-ranked defensive efficiency in the country, this team relies on getting stops and slowing teams down. Teams that can run on them will come out on top.
Vanderbilt enters its' first NCAA Tournament since 2017, when as a 9-seed they lost 68-66 to the Northwestern Wildcats. That will be the last time I discuss this game because the ending was not pretty. Under first year coach Mark Byington, the Commodores have reached heights nobody saw coming in year one. After being slotted as high as an 8 seed, the ‘Dores dropped their last 3 games of the year against Arkansas, Georgia, and Texas (in the first round of the SEC Tournament). Vanderbilt’s resume boasts five wins over top fifteen opponents, four of which came at home. The Commodores have struggled away from Memorial Gym this year and hope that getting away from SEC competition helps them in this round.
What to Expect
The Gaels are one of the best defensive teams in the country, both in the paint and running players off of the three-point line. Their defense is anchored by Mitchell Saxen, a 6’10 center, who is two-time WCC Defensive Player of the Year as well as three-time All-WCC first team. Saxen is not the leading scorer though, as that title goes to Augustas Marciulionis, a 6’4 Senior averaging 14 points per game. The true strength of this Gaels offense is offensive rebounding, where they rank 7th nationally averaging 14 a game. For Saint Mary’s to keep dancing this weekend they will need to exploit Vanderbilt's lack of size and crash the boards. Most of this team’s points come from the paint, they are not a great shooting team but those that have watched Vanderbilt know their opponents seem to shoot phenomenally well against them. In their conference championship game, the Gaels were 0-16 from 3 and need to avoid another shooting performance like that come Friday afternoon in Cleveland.
The Commodores’ fast-paced tempo offense will be very much on display for the country to see on Friday, and for this team to return to playing “Good Vandy” basketball, we must see a lot of it. The weakness of this Gaels team is dealing with athletic teams that like to run, and we know Vandy has the potential to be one of those teams. The issue of the last three games for the Commodores is getting important buckets to stop teams from going on runs. The ‘Dores are going to rely heavily on AJ Hoggard (I know, I know) and Jason Edwards, the two players with postseason experience, to lead this team. The other critical pieces are Jaylen Carey and Devin McGlockton, specifically keeping Saint Mary’s off the offensive glass while staying out of foul trouble. For the Commodores to continue dancing to the second round, we need to see multiple players in double figures and to keep the Gaels to single-digit offensive rebounds.
Chef Miller's Prediction
72-68 Vandy!
