So, Vanderbilt just won the SEC tournament. What’s next?

Nobody denies the significance of that accomplishment, but everyone knows that the real test is coming in the NCAA tournament. This week’s SEC tournament and Vanderbilt’s performance in it has serious implications for the NCAA tournament. Here we will dive into these things, including a potential number 1 seed, some questions about pitching and the rotation, and regional/super regional opponents.

This case is pretty cut and dry. Vanderbilt has the number 1 RPI, KPI, and ELO in the country; is tied for the most SEC wins in the country WITHOUT playing either of South Carolina or Mizzou; and is number 2 in the country for strength of schedule and Q1 wins.

That is, on paper, the best résumé in the country and it’s not particularly close.

Only 2 teams have a real argument to be above Vanderbilt: Texas and Arkansas. Both of those two teams had more regular season SEC wins than Vanderbilt, which does count for something, and Arkansas swept Vandy at home early in the season.

Of these two teams, only Texas has a really good argument to be above Vandy. The Longhorns looked like the prohibitive number 1 overall seed just a few weeks ago, as they were 19-2 and had separated from the pack with the rest of the SEC. However, they lost 8 of their last 11 SEC games and have not looked as dominant since ace Jared Spencer went down for the season. Despite this, they ended up at 22-8 in conference and with the most Q1 wins in the country (a position they still hold), and won the league by 3 games. However, that’s about where their case ends.

While there is no doubt that Texas absolutely has the capability to win the national championship, recency bias is a real thing and Vanderbilt is the hottest team in the country whereas Texas has some real question marks surrounding them. On top of that, with this recent stretch of poor play, they also fell to number 4 in the RPI which is very significant. It has been several years since any team outside of the top 2 in RPI has been given the number 1 overall seed, and it really only occurs when one team is just so clearly better than the other contenders no matter what the metrics say. That is not the case this year. Finally, Vanderbilt now has 22 SEC wins, just like Texas. While SEC Tournament game wins are not weighted quite as heavily as regular season ones, they do still matter. Vanderbilt either matches or exceeds Texas’ résumé in every facet other than Q1 wins while having the advantage of a much more positive narrative surrounding them. I think that will put them over Texas

For courtesy’s sake, let’s look at Arkansas’ argument too. It’s really just that they had 1 more regular season SEC win and swept Vanderbilt at home. Again, though, Vanderbilt has them beat on every single metric when one is comparing résumés on paper, and they now have more SEC wins than the Hogs. On top of that, everyone who has been loosely following college baseball knows that this Vanderbilt team is not the same one that faced Arkansas earlier this year. Hinging an entire argument on the fact that a result that occurred in March is more important than every other consideration known to man is very unlikely to succeed.

While in years past winning the SEC tournament has usually meant that a team has had to expend every single arm in its bullpen (and then use multiple arms twice), that’s not the case this year. Vanderbilt played just 3 games and you saw some interesting pitching decisions because of it. Most notably, Connor Fennell came out of the bullpen against Tennessee instead of starting against Ole Miss (who faced Austin Nye instead).

This fact tells me two things: 1) Corbin will not “pitch off” in the regional and send Nye against the 4 seed team 2) the staff wanted the option to start Fennell on day 2.

Nye pitching Sunday all but eliminates the possibility of him starting on significantly short rest. As has been the pattern of Tim Corbin, JD Thompson will most likely face whoever Vanderbilt’s 4 seed is, and he will rely on other arms to get them through the rest of the weekend.

Fennell will also not be on short rest to pitch game 2, so the staff will be able to choose whether to throw him or Bowker out there depending upon matchup. That gives Vanderbilt’s staff some very nice flexibility going into the weekend, as they can tailor pitching choices to matchup and have more control over results than almost every other staff in the country thanks to Vandy’s depth.

The one question that still remains unanswered to me is what Austin Nye’s role will be in the postseason. His great start vs Ole Miss shut down most concerns about his ability to pitch at the SEC level, but it remains to be seen how he will be used in the future. Will he be an elite bullpen stopper the rest of the way? Will he be penciled in as the starter in a game 4 situation during a regional and thus go unused if Vandy wins in 3? Or could he even move into a game 3 starter spot so that Fennell can be a weapon out of the bullpen? All of those are valid options with their own virtues and drawbacks. It’ll be Tim Corbin and Scott Brown’s choice on which one to go with.

Simply put, nobody can really be sure on who a team’s opponents in a regional are, but most projections have Vanderbilt facing Louisville as an opponent and then other nearby non P4 teams. I think that one of Louisville or Georgia Tech will end up playing at Hawkins field next weekend simply because they are two ACC teams in close proximity to Nashville. There is still a good chance that GT could be a host, so that could throw a wrench into things, too.

Honestly speaking, I have no clue who comes in after that. Both of TN Tech and Austin Peay lost in their tournaments, so Vanderbilt will not get them as a 4 seed. That opens up Hawkins field to the rest of the country and makes it extremely difficult to guess who ends up in Nashville. We’ll just have to wait and see who the committee sends Vanderbilt’s way.

What we do have a better idea of is potential super regional matchups. Vanderbilt will almost certainly be the number 1 or 2 seed, and thus will face someone who was on the regional hosting bubble. That means that Vanderbilt’s likely matchups are Georgia Tech, Southern Miss, Tennessee, or Ole Miss. There is the off-chance that one of Arizona or Florida are given that 16 spot over GT, in which case Vanderbilt could be matched up with them. Either way, Vanderbilt being so high in the national seeds does give them a distinct advantage here: they will be matched up with a team that they have either beaten or should beat on paper, should they get that far. But enough talking about Supers. These guys still have a lot of work to do before getting there, and the less talking about potential matchups and results, the less likely I am to jinx anything.

This weekend Vanderbilt has done itself more favors than maybe anyone else in the country. They have likely earned a top-2 seed in the NCAA tournament, given themselves flexibility in their regional pitching options, and positioned themselves well for an advantageous tournament matchup. For all the people who say that the conference tournaments don’t matter, it seems like this one mattered a whole lot to this team. They got themselves some glory now, and set themselves up to continue it in the postseason. You can’t ask for much more than that.