It’s hard to believe we’re just a few short weeks away from postseason baseball, but we are. Vanderbilt baseball will conclude the 2025 regular season back home at Hawkins field as they take on the Kentucky Wildcats in a meaningful final series.

Kentucky is unranked and has an unimpressive record at 29-20 (13-14 SEC), but don’t let that fool you. They are playing some great baseball of late. They have won 3 of their last 4 SEC series, including ones at Tennessee and versus Oklahoma, and are on a 4 game winning streak. Their sole series loss in the last month came at Mississippi State, where the Wildcats got swept.

Vanderbilt, meanwhile, is fresh off of their biggest SEC series win in the last 2 years as they took down Tennessee in Knoxville to move to 36-16 (16-11 SEC) and up to number 9 in the most recent polls.

Kentucky, similar to Vanderbilt, does not have any real “stars”, per se, but a number of above-average players. Offensively, they are led by seniors Patrick Herrera and Cole Hage, as well as freshman Tyler Bell. All 3 are batting over .300 on the year and each has over 10 stolen bases. Hage is the sole player on Kentucky’s roster with double-digit home runs with 11, but Bell has 27 extra base hits thanks to 8 homers, 17 doubles, and 2 triples. Herrera does not produce much power, but he has only struck out 2 more times than he has walked, and has an OBP above .450 (that OBP has actually gone up in SEC play, too, as it is approaching .500). Look out for the wildcats on the basepaths, too. They have the most stolen bases in the SEC by a pretty wide margin and have 6 players with over 10 stolen bags.

Defensively, Kentucky is very sound. They have a staff ERA of just 4.45 and are a top 25 team in the country for fielding percentage (meaning they don’t commit errors). All 3 of their starting pitchers are very solid players. The Friday night starter is freshman Nate Harris who has a 4.2 ERA on the year which has stayed consistent in SEC play. On Saturdays the Wildcats put out Nic McCary, who has an ERA of 4.06 and has been extremely clutch for the Cats at times. Then in Game 3s they use senior Ben Cleaver, who has the best ERA in the rotation of 3.30 and has pitched over 70 innings this year. While they do not have a bullpen ace akin to Sawyer Hawks, they do have someone who comes close in Simon Gregersen. He is an experienced senior with a 3.90 ERA on the year, but an ERA under 2.5 in 21 IP in SEC play. There are also several solid options behind him in Hayden Smith, Ethan Walker, and Jackson Nove who have ERAs of 3.68, 4.46, and 4.65

There are some real postseason implications in this series, too, as Vandy will be looking to secure a national seed while Kentucky is fighting to secure a spot in the tournament.

It’s been a common theme over the last several years to look at Kentucky and Vanderbilt and see two teams trying to do very similar things. This year is no different. Vandy and Kentucky are both teams that will play extremely sound, fundamental ball; will get out and run on the basepaths; and try to force errors while not beating themselves. On paper these similarities are striking as both strengths and weaknesses are parallel. The shared strengths are that both teams are in the top 3 of the SEC in stolen bases, top 3 in fielding percentage, and top 5 in staff ERA (Vandy is number 3, Kentucky number 5). On the negative side, both teams are bottom 4 in both batting average and slugging, with each metric being 0.002 away from each other (Vandy is batting .267 to UK’s .269, Vandy is slugging .430 to UK’s .428).

It is worth noting, though, that Vanderbilt’s recent power surge could separate it from Kentucky in some capacity. Vandy has hit 35 home runs in-conference (with 26 coming in the last 6 weeks) to Kentucky’s 26 SEC homers. Vanderbilt has also scored nearly 100 more runs than UK despite the statistical similarities.

Both teams, in theory, have a lot to play for this weekend. Just a single win for Kentucky basically seals their trip to the NCAA tournament, while a series win for Vanderbilt secures them a national seed (maybe even top 5 seed, depending on other results). There could be questions of hangovers on both sides, though. Kentucky is considered within the bubble after their triumphant sweep of Oklahoma, while Vanderbilt will still be riding high off of that Tennessee win. Both teams need to be able to reset before playing one another and it would not surprise me if the team that simply wants it more ends up victorious this weekend.

Over the last few weeks, one of the keys to Vanderbilt’s improved play has been the sophomore core of the team surging and giving power production that the team had not previously had. Most notably, Colin Barczi and Braden Holcomb have now hit 7 home runs in SEC play and have cemented themselves as 2 of Vanderbilt’s strongest power bats. They are also 2 of the 4 best batters in SEC play by average (Holcomb is at .338, Barczi at .283). These two absolutely must maintain their production if Vanderbilt is to have sustained success this postseason. The team is completely different with middle-of-the-order power threats and much more likely to beat strong opponents.

That being said, there are still a few candidates for breakouts that may come. RJ Austin looked like he was on the verge of returning to his top form against both Alabama and Tennessee. Getting him back on track would be massive right before the postseason. Freshmen Rustan Rigdon and Brodie Johnston are still producing as Rigdon continues to just get on base while Brodie provides the power, but neither have been hitting consistently of late. Getting those two back in the saddle could be the difference between a super regional and a 4th consecutive regional flame out. Basically, it’s now or never for these guys to break out before the postseason. This is the last time they’ll be playing at Hawkins field before hosting postseason baseball, and hopefully they use it to their advantage.

While this is not necessarily a marquee series on paper, Kentucky is a sneaky good team that will really challenge Vanderbilt to keep up their elite play at home. There is also still a whole lot to play for in this final matchup of the regular season, and postseason fates will hang in the balance as these 3 games happen over the weekend. Ultimately, though, Vanderbilt simply is a better version of what Kentucky is built to be, and has performed exceptionally well at home throughout the year. It’s hard for me to see Vanderbilt losing this one, especially since Tim Corbin will ensure that every player knows what Vanderbilt has to play for this series. I think Vandy wins 2-1, taking the first 2 games but losing the 3rd as Kentucky salvages the series in order to secure an NCAA tournament spot.