This weekend the Vandyboys take the 3 hour trip East to Knoxville in what is a rivalry series riddled with mutual dislike and real postseason implications.

In what has not been the status quo over the last few seasons, Vanderbilt is ranked ahead of Tennessee and the more in-form team. Tim Corbin’s club is ranked number 11 in the most recent D1 Baseball poll whereas Tennessee is number 15. The Vols hold the edge in overall record at 37-11 to Vanderbilt’s 34-14 but both share an identical SEC record of 14-10. Vanderbilt won their most recent SEC series in dramatic fashion with a walk-off win over Alabama in the rubber match; they have won 2 of their 3 most recent series. Tennessee dropped their series against Auburn and have now lost their last 3 SEC series and 4 of their last 5; in that stretch they have lost all 3 of their home series.

Contrary to recent years, the Volunteer’s pitching has outdone their offense. They are led by 2 elite starting pitchers in Liam Doyle and Marcus Phillips. They have ERAs of 3.23 and 3.76 in SEC play and both throw in the mid to upper 90s. Doyle also has the most strikeouts in the SEC, and is second only to Connor Fennell in terms of strikeout rate by starting pitchers. Freshman Tegan Kuhns has been their Sunday starter and while the rookie has round-1 stuff, he has struggled a bit in that role. Their bullpen, while not super deep, has elite top-level talent in AJ Russell, Nate Snead, and Dylan Loy. Loy has been all-around great this year with a sub-4 ERA, but Snead and Russell have struggled a bit despite their elite talent.

Offensively Tennessee is led by superstar 1st baseman Andrew Fischer and elite shortstop Gavin Kilen. Fischer is batting .318 with 17 home runs while Kilen is at .388 with 13 homers. It should be noted that Kilen is playing through an injury and while his average has stayed elite, he has not produced as much power of late. Behind these two there is an extremely solid and veteran supporting cast including Hunter Ensley, Dalton Bargo, and Reese Chapman. Bargo and Chapman are batting near .300 with 11 and 12 home runs, respectively, while Hunter Ensley is hitting .352 with 8 long shots.

Both teams this weekend have had frustrating aspects of their season despite being in very good shape overall. Vanderbilt has been plagued with inconsistency as they have not won 2 SEC series back-to-back, while Tennessee has been in an uncharacteristic and unexpected slump over the last 5 weeks. One of those two trends will end this weekend, and it will likely be whichever team is more mentally prepared. Vandy will have to both shake the ghosts of past and present, as they cannot allow Tennessee’s dominance from 2022-24 haunt them, nor their inconsistency this season. The Vols will have to convince themselves that they can break this streak of bad play, especially the costly mistakes that have plagued them of late. Both teams will also have to deal with the raw emotion of an intense rivalry series. Vandy cannot succumb to Tennessee’s antics, and Tennessee cannot get lost in those antics and let Vandy take an upper hand. Whichever team is more mentally fit will likely win.

I know some will read this and find it preposterous, Tennessee’s offensive statistics on the season blow Vanderbilt out of the water, but add some nuance to things and it gets pretty even. Tennessee’s stats were bolstered by a very easy non-conference schedule which, frankly, enabled them to put up preposterous and unsustainable numbers. Vanderbilt, on the other hand played one of the most difficult noncons in the conference and were tested with a good amount of high-level pitching, effectively deflating their stats. If you look at Tennessee and Vandy’s SEC stats, they are surprisingly similar. It should also be noted that Tennessee plays in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the conference, whereas Vanderbilt plays in the most pitcher-friendly park in the conference, too.

Vanderbilt is batting .266 in SEC play compared to Tennessee’s .278. Vandy has 27 doubles, 28 homers, and 7 triples in SEC play next to Tennessee’s 35 doubles, 35 doubles, and 3 triples. If you narrow it down even more to determine performance in the last 5 SEC series, one will find that Vanderbilt has put up even (or even slightly better) offensive numbers than Tennessee. The batting averages become nearly identical, and Vanderbilt has actually hit more home runs than the Vols (20 to UT’s 19). If Vanderbilt’s offense can consistently produce in the manner it has against Georgia, Alabama, and Florida, there really isn’t any part of the game where one could say either team is significantly better than the other.

Vanderbilt’s pitching doesn’t really need to be discussed here. That staff has shown us time and time again that they are consistently elite, especially with Sawyer Hawks back to normal. However, as mentioned before, Vandy’s offense has been good in spots, but inconsistent. Here’s a big part of why: they have two of the most in-form bats in the country in Braden Holcomb and Riley Nelson, but also two of the absolute worst in Mac Rose and Mike Mancini. Both Rose and Mancini are barely batting above the Mendoza line in conference play and not providing any power at all even when they do hit it. Mancini’s conference ISO (isolated power) is 4th worst among qualified batters while Rose’s is the WORST in the conference. Rose is also striking out 30% of the time, which is second worst on the team, only behind Brodie Johnston who is a freshman and also Vanderbilt’s best power bat this year. When you are getting so little from members of your lineup it is easy to be inconsistent, as fewer people are there to pick up the slack if one of your stars has an off day.

Of the Vandy-UT matchups of late, this one is by far the most significant for the postseason with both teams tied at 14-10 in-conference. The calculations are simple: the team that wins this series secures a hosting spot and is well on their way to earning a top-8 national seed, the losing team will have work to do in their final series to secure a regional hosting spot. Both teams desperately need to secure a regional host spot and would love to be playing at home during super-regionals (should they advance), too. Expect both teams to come out fighting with all they’ve got, because they know what a win could mean for not just personal bragging rights, but also their path to Omaha.

Overall, it is easy to see why this series is so important and why it figures to be one of the best of the year. While I could very easily see it going any number of ways, with either team sweeping being a distinct possibility, the most likely outcome is that Tennessee takes it 2-1. Vanderbilt has struggled on the road, and while UT has not been great at home of late, they have 2 of the best starting pitchers in the country. While this is nothing unique or “bad” per se, Vandy has not done well when they come up against elite pitchers, as evidenced by their performances against Riley Quick and Kyson Witherspoon. I think UT takes the first 2 games and then Vandy salvages a win behind another strong Connor Fennell performance while UT struggles to find reliable Sunday pitching.